農業面對生產與價格不穩定的前提下，風險管理（risk management ）顯得特別 需要。以往有關大豆、高粱供需模擬模式或實證性供給反應（positive supply response） 之研究，風險的因素或涵義往往模糊不清或在測定上被忽略了。這對大豆、高粱供給彈性的 測定以及未來作物面積或產量之預測產生了嚴重的偏誤，而影響大豆、高粱產銷政策的擬定 以及其執行上的效果。 基本上，本研究主要在為政府當局或農民提供有關大豆、高粱供給面風險反應之較具體情報 ，包括供給的風險彈性及考慮風險因素之未來種植面積大小之預測，以加強農政當局或農民 對風險管理之能力，及增進生產與行銷決策之效率。

　　　　　Facing risk and uncertainty, risk management is essential for agricultural producers. The simulation models for Taiwan soybean and sorghum market have been built and estimated by previous studies. However, risk variable is ignored in their model process. This would cause the estimation of supply elasticity and the prediction of soybean and sorghum acreage planted to be less meaningful. Basically, this study tries to estimate the effects of supply response to risk and forecast the future acreage planted for Taiwan soybean and sorghum. Hopefully, the empirical results would provider rice producers and government to do their policy-making more accurately.