傳統之停機位需求估計方法多為確定性方法(deterministi method)，然其模式之 輸入參數或停機位需求量本身皆為隨機變數，此類模式之合理性令人質疑。為改進此一缺失 ，本研究假設未來機場之參數及其分布與現況類似，以微觀角度對實際營運現象進行適當之 反映，使停機位需求之估計能更接近真實。首先以班機延誤之分布情形為基礎，將飛航時刻 表中所有班次進行分類；其次考慮飛航時刻表之實際營運特性，建立一班次時刻表構建模式 。以此班次時刻表為基礎，本研究採用伯努力分配 (Bernoulli distribution) 對航機占用 停機位之行為進行描述，並配合實際航機占用資料而估計出停機位需求量之平均值和標準差 。最後由平均值、標準差與每日實際停機位需求量最大值比較，可估計出適當之停機位需求 數及其對應之可靠度。

　　　　　The design hourly number of gate positions is one of the major parameters in planning and design of an airport. The objective of this study is to develop an overall model for estimating gate position requirements and their corresponding reliabilities. This overall model contains three main parts. The first is a schedule-creating model, which calculates flight number of the design day by a deterministic method, and creates the time schedule for all flights by randomizing the analyzed or given distribution of scheduled time. The second and third parts estimate mean and variance of gate requirements, respectively. Finally, by comparing the output requirements with real data, their corresponding reliabilities can be estimated with good results.