面對嚴重的霧霾天氣以及霧霾污染邊界不斷擴張的嚴峻挑戰,加快創新大氣污染聯防聯控體系以形成跨區域協同治污合力勢在必行。本文基于京津冀、長三角、珠三角、成渝、長中游等五大地區96個城市2015年的空氣質量指數（AQI）以及PM2.5、PM10、SO2、CO、NO2、O3等6種分項污染物的逐日數據,從時間序列數據"預測能力"的視角,在向量自回歸模型框架下識別霧霾污染的城市間動態交互影響效應,運用社會網絡分析方法刻畫霧霾污染空間關聯的網絡結構特征。在此基礎上,運用二次指派程序從分項污染物視角考察霧霾污染空間關聯的關鍵誘因,并利用雙變量Moran指數揭示霧霾污染與其影響因素之間的空間相關性。研究發現,城市霧霾污染之間存在普遍的動態關聯關系且呈現出聯系緊密、穩定性強、帶有明顯特征的多線程復雜網絡結構形態。不論在地區內部還是在全部樣本城市當中,均不存在孤立的城市節點,這意味著面對霧霾污染的空間關聯網絡,任何一個城市都不能獨善其身,均受到來自地區內部和地區以外其他城市以及它們構成的空間關聯網絡的影響。在六種分項污染物中,PM2.5的空間關聯是導致霧霾污染空間關聯的最主要誘因。城市霧霾污染與其影響因素尤其是城市人口密度、投資強度、工業污染排放之間存在顯著的空間相關性。基于上述結論,中國應當加快構建以防控PM2.5為重點的跨區域霧霾污染協同治理機制,并將其融入城市群發展戰略以及區域發展戰略之中,最終實現包含霧霾污染協同治理在內的全方位的區域協同發展。

Facing severe challenge of regional haze pollution and its boundary expansion,it is imperative to form interregional pollution governance force through the innovation of joint prevention and control system. Based on 96 cities’ daily data of air quality index（ AQI） and six sub-pollutants such as PM2.5,PM10,SO2,CO,NO2,O3 of Beijing-Tianjin-Hehei region,the Yangtze River Delta,Pearl River Delta,Chengdu-Chongqing region and the middle reaches of Yangtze River,the article identified dynamic interaction effects among urban pollution with the VAR framework from the perspective of forecast capability of time series and revealed the network structure characteristic of spatial correlation of haze pollution by the method of Social Network Analysis（ SNA）. Meanwhile,the article used quadratic assignment program to reveal the key incentives of spatial correlation of haze pollution within sub-pollutants,and exploited bivariate Moran index to describe spatial correlation between haze pollution and its influential factors. The main results were as follows: AQI and six sub-pollutants among cities all had multithreading and dynamic correlation which presentsed complex network characteristic with close linkage and strong stability. Meanwhile the spatial correlation network of urban haze pollution had a significant small-world characteristic. There is no isolated urban node both within the region and in the entire sample cities,faced with haze pollution spatial correlation network,which means that no city could be immune to haze pollution,and would be all influenced by other cities that are built the spatial correlation network from inside and outside the region. In the six sub-pollutants the spatial correlation of PM2.5was the main cause of urban spatial correlation of haze pollution. Urban haze pollution and its influence factors,especially the urban population density,investment intensity,industrial pollution emissions,had a significant spatial correlation. Based on the above conclusion,China should accelerate to build a cross-regional air pollution joint prevention and control system with emphasis on the prevention and control of PM2.5. And the collaborative system should be integrated into the urban agglomeration development strategy and regional development strategy to realize a full range of regional collaborative development.