[目的/意義]針對當前戰略情報分析工作中存在的團隊合作不足、任務重疊和分工不明確等問題,依托M.C.Robert提出的"以目標為中心"的情報分析思想,以建模思想為基礎,提出了針對欲求目標進行情報分析的"目標模型關系法"。[方法/過程]通過對南海武裝沖突可能性的分析,詳細闡述了此方法的具體應用流程。[結果/結論]該方法在處理戰略情報問題上的實用性和優勢得以驗證,為戰略情報分析方法的創新提供了借鑒。

[Purpose/significance] In order to solve the problems such as poor teamwork,mission overlap and unequivocal division of labor in the practice of strategic intelligence analysis,this paper puts forward target-modeling method,which is based on modeling theory and"target-centric"intelligence analysis theory proposed by M. C. Robert. [Method/process] The paper specifies the application of target-modeling method with a case study on South China Sea conflict. [Result/conclusion] It has been testified that target-modeling method has great practicability and advantage in the aspect of dealing with strategic intelligence,meanwhile the paper provides an innovative method for strategic intelligence analysis.