中國經濟長期向好的基本面雖未改變,但2010年以來經濟增速不斷回落,一些阻礙經濟可持續發展的不利因素不斷積累,落入"中等收入陷阱"的風險有所上升。揭示中等收入陷阱的產生機制,顯然對于政府形成規避中等收入陷阱的有效政策具有重要意義。本文根據社會再生產理論,建立了"世代交疊"模型,對中等收入陷阱的產生機制作出理論解釋,并運用中國1998—2014年各地區經濟數據進行了驗證,結果表明:(1)人力資本積累和企業創新會在不同程度上促進經濟增長,并且二者存在協同效應;(2)上中等層次人力資本積累與企業創新的協同效應可以帶動經濟增長;(3)下中等層次人力資本與企業創新的協同效應對經濟增長的作用不顯著。這意味著現階段中國經濟發展不僅應注重人力資本量的積累,更要保證質的提升。基于此,應從下三個方面著手推動中國經濟實現中高速增長:(1)著力提升科技創新能力,科學構建產權保護法律體系,促進形成企業家倡導企業科研創新的機制,激發企業創新的主觀能動性,維護創新企業對于運用和轉讓科研成果的合法權益;(2)著力培育高素質人才的教育體系,穩步提升高等教育入學率和辦學質量,鼓勵教育培訓機構適度創新,推動培訓方式項目化,針對崗位需求擴充勞動者知識和技術儲備;(3)著力降低初中及以下人口的規模與比例,延長義務教育年限,鼓勵優質教育資源向不發達地區適度轉移,關注偏遠地區貧困人群的入學情況,努力為窮人提供公平發展的機會。

China’s long-term economic fundamental to be better has not changed,but the economic growth continues to drop since2010. Some negative factors accumulate and hinder the process of economy sustainable development. The risks of falling into the‘middle income trap’increase. Revealing the mechanism of the middle-income trap is important for the formation of an effective government policies which can avoid the middle-income trapobviously. According to the idea of social reproduction,we establish the‘overlapping generations’ model to explain the mechanism of the middle-income trap,by using China’s regional economic data in1998-2014. The results showthat:(1)Human capital accumulation and innovation will promote economic growth in varying degrees,and there are synergistic effects between the two factors.(2)The synergistic effect between higher level of human capital accumulation and innovation can drive economic growth.(3)The synergistic effect between lower level of human capital accumulation and innovation on economic growth is not significant. This means that China’s economic development should not only focus on the amount of human capital accumulation,but also ensure a qualitative improvement at the present. Based on this,China should achieve medium-high economic growth from following aspects.(1)Improve the ability of scientific and technological innovation,construct the legal system of property rights protection scientifically,promote the formation of enterprise research and innovation mechanism which promoted by entrepreneurs,stimulatethe enterprise innovation initiative,and safeguard the legitimate rights of enterprises to use and transfer research results.(2)Cultivate the educational system of high quality talents,improve the enrollment rate and the quality of higher education steadily,encourage the education and training institutions to moderate innovation,promote the projected training method,and expand laborers’ knowledge and technical reserves for job needs.(3) Reduce the size and proportion of the population which at the stage of compulsory education,extend the duration of compulsory education, encourage the transfer of quality education resources to underdeveloped areas,focus on the enrollment of the poor in remote areas,and provide equitable development opportunities for the poor.