作為一項市場創新和政策創新,即將啟動的中國全國性碳市場備受國內外關注。為保證其成功建立與平穩發展,相關經驗借鑒已刻不容緩,但作為投石問路的7大試點碳市場發展層次不齊,可供參考的模式有限,因此研究全球第一大碳市場——歐盟碳排放交易體系(EU ETS)及其對中國的可參照性尤為迫切;而作為市場是否成熟的風向標,碳價規律性特征的挖掘尤為重要。前期國內外學者分別發現CER價格、原油價格、煤炭價格、天然氣價格、歐洲工業指數、聯合國氣候變化大會、政府政策、極寒天氣、暖冬天氣、自然災害、重大事件等多種因素都有可能引起EUA期貨價格波動。本研究通過引入MIV-BP神經網絡模型,對EU ETS二期和三期的EUA期貨價格進行訓練和測試,模擬了上述11個因素對EUA價格的影響,彌補了傳統計量模型難以同時處理較多變量及不能整合定性與定量變量等缺點。通過對EU ETS二期1 149組和三期775組數據的挖掘,得出了各變量對EUA期貨價格的影響程度。其中,二期運行階段各變量影響程度從大到小排序為:自然災害>COP>CER>極寒天氣>Coal>重大事件>Brent>政府政策>Stock600>Gas>暖冬天氣;三期運行階段各變量影響程度從大到小排序為:COP>Stock600>Coal>自然災害>極寒天氣>重大事件>政府政策>Brent>Gas>CER>暖冬天氣。最后,本研究對二、三期各變量對碳價影響程度的變化進行了解釋,并對中國未來建立全國性碳市場提出了以下四點建議:(1)穩定碳市場參與主體預期;(2)完善核證減排抵消機制,保持政策穩定;(3)配額分配考慮區域差異;(4)建立配額應急機制。

As a market and policy innovation,China’s national carbon market attracts great attention at home and abroad. In order to ensure its smooth establishment and sustainable development,it is rather urgent to learn from relevant best practices. However,as the only references in China,the 7 pilot carbon trading schemes could only provide very limited experiences. Therefore,studying and learning from EU-ETS-the largest carbon market in the world has become very important. As a significant indicator of whether a market matures or not,carbon price is able to present considerable signal. Various scholars have found respectively that prices of CER carbon,crude oil,coal and natural gas,along with Euro Stoxx index,UN climate change conferences,government policies,extreme weathers,warm winters,natural disasters and important events can all trigger EUA carbon prices fluctuating. This study therefore tries to introduce a MIV-BP model to train and test EUA prices during second and third phases and simulate how the above 11 factors influenced EUA prices. The model can well compensate the shortcomings of traditional models which are not able to handle multivariate or integrate quantitative and qualitative variables. Through data mining of 1 149 groups of phase 2 data and 775 groups of phase 3 data,the study finds out the degrees of how different variables can influence EUA prices,which the descending order in phase 2 is: natural disaster > UN conferences > CER > extreme weathers > coal prices > important events > Brent oil prices > government policies >Stock600 index > natural gas prices > warm winters; the order in phase 3 changes to: UN conferences > Stock600 index > coal prices >natural disasters > extreme weathers > important events > government policies > Brent oil prices > natural gas prices > CER > warm winters. Based on further analysis,the study presents explanation of why this change happened and gives suggestions to China’s future national carbon market:(1) stabilize the expectation of market participants;(2) improve permits offset mechanism and maintain policy consistency;(3)take regional differences into account when allocate permits;(4) establish emergency response mechanism of carbon rights allocation.