對資本回報率進行綠色核算既符合當前綠色發展的新理念,同時也是判斷我國經濟增長可持續性的重要依據。使用超越對數生產函數估算1960—2014年碳排放的影子價格;利用Hall-Jorgenson租金公式測算剔除碳減排成本的中國資本回報率的動態演變趨勢。對中國資本回報率重新估算克服了因忽略碳減排成本而導致的高估,估算結果更加科學可靠。研究結果:(1)中國碳排放的影子價格由1960年的56.34元/t上升到2011年的1651.69/t,根據影子價格計算的碳減排成本占GDP總量的份額年均為31%。(2)不考慮碳減排成本和稅收因素的基礎資本回報率變動趨勢可以劃分為三個階段。1952-1983年為第一階段,資本回報率在波動中由高位逐步回落。1984—2010年是第二個階段,基礎資本回報率保持平穩。2011年以來是第三個階段,這一階段中國的資本回報率呈臺階式下降趨勢,特別是2012—2014年,稅后的資本回報率已經難以抵補企業投資的機會成本。(3)考慮碳減排成本將導致資本回報率平均下降約12%。其中1960—1975年資本回報率呈下降趨勢。1976—2008年資本回報率基本保持穩定,資本回報率平均值為15.2%。2009年以后,資本回報率則表現出逐年下降的趨勢,2014年的估算值甚至降為-1%。本文僅考慮了碳減排成本,如果再考慮諸如二氧化硫等廢氣排放、廢水與固廢排放的成本后,綠色資本回報率的估算值將更低。建議:在當前的經濟形勢下,應實施激勵企業技術創新以及減稅(尤其是生產稅)政策遏制資本回報率下降的趨勢。另外,需要采取分階段遞增的環境規制政策,逐步實現企業環境外部成本的內部化。

Researh methods: It is not only accord with the new concept of green development,but also the important basis to judge the sustainability of economic growth.Using the logarithmic production function to estimate the shadow price of carbon emissions in 1960-2014; Using the Hall-Jorgenson rent formula to calculate the evolutionary trend of the MPK in China. The new research on the returns on capital overcomes the overestimation caused by ignoring the bad output,and the estimation result is more scientific and reliable. The study found that:( 1) The shadow price of carbon emissions in China rose from 56.34 yuan per ton in 1960 to 1651.69 yuan per ton in2011,and according to the calculation of the shadow price,the costs to reduce carbon emission accounted for 31% of GDP annually( 2) Without the consideration the cost of reduction of carbon emission reduction,the trend of the rate of the return to capital can be divided into three stages. The first phase is from1952 to1983,the return on capital gradually declined in the high volatility. The second stage is from 1984 to 2010,the underlying the return on capital remained stable. The third stage began from 2011,this stage China return on capital has a stepped down trend,especially in 2012-2014 years,the return on capital after taxes has been difficult to compensating for the opportunity cost of company investment;( 3) Considering the cost of carbon emission reduction will lead to the return on capital dropped by an average of about 12%. The return on capital from 1960 to 1975 showed a downward trend,and remained stable from 1976 to 2008,the average rate of the return on capital was 15.2%. After 2009,the return on capital showed a downward trend year by year,the estimated value in 2014 is-1%. This paper only considers the cost of carbon emissions. If we consider the cost such as sulfur dioxide emissions,waste water and solid waste emissions,the estimating of the return on green capital value will be lower.Policy suggestion: Under the current economic situation,we should implement incentive technology innovation and tax reducing policy( especially production tax) to curb the declining trend of the return on capital. In addition,we need to adopt environmental regulation policy step by step,and realize gradually the internalization of external cost of enterprise environment.