當前我國進入新常態發展階段,新的經濟社會形勢要求提升城市發展質量,實現有序建設、適度開發、高效運行,需要對快速城鎮化時期增長拉動型城市規劃帶來的負面效應進行反思。城市增長邊界源于美國,是抑制城市蔓延的政策工具之一,目前已被引入我國總體規劃編制體系。然而不同編制主體對于增長邊界內涵的理解不同,劃定方法也多依據經驗定性判斷,難以發揮實效。本文以長三角次中心城市之一的蘇州為例,結合格網劃定,綜合考慮生態、建設條件、人口分布、經濟發展、基礎設施等方面因素,運用主成分分析法進行增長潛力分析,并結合聚類分析確定城市增長區,劃定城市彈性增長邊界,對于轉型發展期的其他城市有借鑒意義。

Since the beginning of the twentyfirst century, China has undergone the urbanization process that posed unprecedented challenges to environmental protection, resource saving as well as sustainable development. Therefore, during the transformation period of coordinating urban development and environment alprotection, changing the way of development has become one of the hot issues. Urban Growth Boundary(UGB) which limits the urban sprawl has been worldwide implemented by planning organizations in developed countries. The current planning process in China has also emphasized the importance of smart growth. Thus, it has become a great challenge for sustainable development to establish a scientifi c UGB. Suzhou, located in the central part of the Yangtze River Delta, is one of the core urban functional regions in east China. This paper proposed UGBs in Suzhou by applying integrated grid analysis approach including both qualitative and quantitative methods concerning land suitability, population distribution, economic development, infrastructure and other factors. In order to simulate the urban growth boundaries, Principal Component Analysis and Cluster Analysis have been used in the study. The case study of Suzhou provides a logical and replicable way to select the proper model of urban development.