第三產業在北京市的產業格局中占有日益重要的地位,從水資源配置的視角探尋三產結構優化策略具有重要現實意義。采用LMDI分解方法,定量分析北京市第三產業用水結構變化驅動力特征,基于投入產出法計算各行業部門的用水系數,并進行用水特性和行業關聯的聚類分析。結果表明,產業規模的快速增長是第三產業用水需求增長的決定性因素,2007-2013年間,累計使總用水量增加了34 476.24萬m~3,產業結構效應和技術效應則對用水量的增加起抑制作用,兩者分別使用水量減少2 861.29萬m~3和21 908.17萬m~3,產業結構效應和技術效應對用水的抑制作用不及經濟產出效應對用水的拉動作用,最終導致用水量的增長。不同行業之間的用水系數有較大差異,水利、環境和公共設施管理、教育等行業的用水系數相對較大,批發和零售業、金融業的用水系數相對較小,科學研究技術服務和地質勘查等行業的用水乘數較大。第三產業中的高用水行業包括住宿和餐飲業等7個行業部門,潛在高用水行業包括批發和零售業等6個行業;一般用水行業為居民服務和其他服務業。聚類分析結果表明,對于諸如租賃和商務服務業及科學研究技術服務業等感應度系數較大的行業,應優先保障水資源的供給,使用高配額、低水價的管理方式;對于文化體育業等感應度系數較小的行業,可使用低配額、高水價的管理方式,限制用水量;對于配額高且水耗低的產業,可采取水權轉讓手段,將富余的水權轉讓給水耗高且產出高的產業。最后,針對研究結果,提出水權交易、技術推廣、政策管理與機制構建四方面建議,為第三產業經濟增長與用水之間的協調發展提供借鑒。

The tertiary industry occupies an increasingly important position in Beijing’s industrial structure,and it is of great practical significance in exploring optimization strategies for tertiary industry structure from the perspective of water resources allocation.Quantitative analysis are made on the driving force characteristics of water utilization structure in Beijing with LMDI decomposition method,and the water usage coefficients of different sectors are calculated based on input-output method,and the cluster analysis are also made on the water usage feature and industry association.The results showed that the rapid growth of the industrial scale is the decisive factor of the growth of tertiary industry water demand,and the total water consumption increased by 344.76 millon m~3 from2007 to 2013.Additionally,the structure and technology effect inhibited the growth of water utilization,and they reduced 28.61 and219.08 millon m~3 respectively.Moreover,the inhibiting effect caused by structure effect and technology effect was not as good as the stimulating effect caused by output effect,which led to a rising demand for water utilization.Water usage coefficients in different sectors also have large differences.For example,water usage coefficients in water conservancy,environment,public facilities management and education sector were relatively large,while in wholesale and retail trade and financial sector the coefficients were relatively small.And water consumption multipliers in scientific research technical services and geological prospecting are relatively large.High water utilization sectors in the tertiary industry include accommodation and catering sector and other six sectors.Potential high water utilization sectors include wholesale and retail trade sector and other five sectors.General water utilization sectors include resident services and other service sector.As for sectors whose coefficient degrees are relatively large such as leasing and business service and scientific research technical service sector,cluster analysis results show that,we should give priority to ensuring the supply of water resource and adopt high quota and low price management style;and for sectors whose coefficient degrees are relatively small such as cultural and sports sector,we could adopt low quota and high price management style to restrict water utilization;for sectors with high quota and low water consumption,we could take the water rights transfer measures to transfer additional water rights to sectors with high water consumption and high output.Finally,according to the research results,four addvices are provided which comprise water rights transfer,technology promotion,policy management and mechanism establishment.The suggestions provide references for the coordinated development between economy and water utilization in the tertiary industry.