基于2015年對天津市農民的調查數據,運用二元Logistic回歸模型,在性別差異的視角下,分析了農民農地轉出意愿的影響因素。研究發現:對男性和女性農地轉出意愿均有顯著影響的主要是年齡、家庭農業收入比重、家庭勞動人口數量、非農就業年工資水平、對農地的態度、對政府土地流轉服務評價、對農民工子女入學政策的評價。只對男性農地轉出意愿有顯著影響的是農地經營成本、農地經營收益、是否簽訂勞動合同、外出找工作途徑、農地轉出程序評價、對開展就業技能培訓的評價、是否參與新農保、對新農保保障能力評價。只對女性農地轉出意愿有顯著影響的是文化程度、婚姻狀況、對非農就業工作生活環境的感知、所在地區。基于上述結論,提出了相關對策建議。

On the basis of 2015 survey data on Tianjin farmers,using Binary Logistic regression model,in the perspective of gender differences,this paper analyzed determinants of farmers’ will of farmland transfer. The results indicate that: age,the proportion of farming income,number of family labor force,non-farm payrolls in wages,the attitude towards farmland,evaluation on government’s land transfer service and migrant pupils’ education significantly affect male and female farmers’ will. Agricultural land management costs and income,whether to sign labor contract,approaches of going out to work,evaluation on farmland transfer program,skills training,new agricultural insurance level,whether to participate in new agricultural insurance only significantly affect male farmers’ will. Education level,marital status,feeling of employment environment,and region,remarkably affect female farmers’ will. Based on the above conclusions,this paper finally put forward relevant suggestions.