中國正面臨嚴峻的環境問題,2013年中國的CO₂排放量超過了歐盟和美國的總和,同時中國的人均CO₂排放量首次超過歐洲。2015年在巴黎國際氣候大會上中國政府宣布碳排放強度減排目標為:2030年單位國內生產總值CO₂排放比2005年下降60%-65%。按照IPCC（2007）CO₂排放核算方法計算的數據,近年來中國CO₂排放情況總體呈排放量逐年上升但排放強度總體下降的態勢。為了進一步估計中國2030年CO₂排放強度,本文構建了IPAT模型,利用全國30個省1995-2012年數據進行擬合,并采用最小二乘法和螢火蟲優化算法分別計算了IPAT模型的參數,發現與傳統最小二乘法相比,螢火蟲算法優化后的模型顯示出更高的擬合優度和更低的誤差,模型系數也更為合理。文章在螢火蟲優化的IPAT模型基礎上估算了中國2030年的CO₂排放強度,實證結果顯示,第三產業的發展有利于降低CO₂排放強度;2030年全國CO₂排放強度比2005年下降了66.34%,其中有20個省份CO₂排放強度減排幅度超過60%;中國能夠實現在2015巴黎國際氣候大會上提出的碳減排目標。為了進一步發展低碳經濟,各省應該充分重視經濟轉型對減少CO₂排放的作用,改善以煤炭為主的能源消費結構,增加生物能、太陽能、風能、沼氣等可再生資源的使用比重。

Environmental change now is an extremely serious threat to China.CO₂ emissions from China in 2013 exceeded those from the European Union and the United States.Meanwhile,per capital CO₂ emissions from China exceeded those from European Union for the first time in 2013.At the UN Climate Summits of Paris in 2015,China announced that it would purse its reduction goals of CO₂ emissions intensity.Until 2030,CO₂ emissions per unit of GDP will be decreased to 60%-65% than that in 2005.According to IPCC（2007）,in China,the atmospheric CO₂ emissions are projected to continue rising,while its share of CO₂ emissions intensity has even decreased.For an accurate value of CO₂ emissions intensity in 2030,this paper introduced IPAT Model.In IPAT Model,data（retrospectively for 1995-2012） from over 30 provinces of China has been fitted and the IPAT Model parameters are estimated,respectively using the Least Square Method（LSM） and Firefly Algorithm（FA）.Relative to those outcomes,it is found that Firefly Algorithm is more efficient and reliable.CO₂ emissions intensity in 2030 China has been estimated in this paper on the base of IPAT Model,in which the empirical result shows the development of tertiary industry would be conductive to CO₂ emissions reduction.On the other hand,compared with CO₂ emissions intensity of 2005,the nationwide CO₂ emissions intensity of 2030 fell by 66.34%,even in 20 provinces,the magnitude of CO₂ emissions reduction could be exceeded 60 percent.The empirical result also prove that China could achieve its reduction goals announced at the UN Climate Summits of Paris in 2015.As this paper demonstrated,China should further foster the transition to a low carbon economy,and increase the share of power comes from renewable sources such as bioenergy,solar,wind and biogas.