【目的/意義】個人求助網絡募捐模式下網絡輿情演變各階段參與主體的認知和利益訴求的差異會影響其行為策略選擇,利用演化博弈理論可以從根本上分析輿情的形成與演化動因。【方法/過程】以羅爾事件為例,在動態演化博弈模型基礎上探究網絡輿情形成、發展、控制三階段多方參與主體的演化穩定策略選擇,并對網絡輿情的演變提出合理的指導意見。【結果/結論】根據博弈結果可知:受助人聯合企業發布虛假求助信息、網民采取捐助是網絡輿情形成階段的演化穩定策略;事件內情的曝光,網民總體傾向質疑使網絡輿情進一步發酵,此時政府的有效干預與相關責任方合理解釋有利于控制輿情的波動,使公眾利益得到補償,從而緩解輿情的負面影響

【Purpose/significance】The choice of behavior strategy will be affected by participants’ cognition and interests differences in every network public opinion evolution stage under the mode of individual help for online donation.The formation and evolution causes of public opinion can be fundamentally explored through the evolutionary game theory method.【Method/process】The rolle events is given as an example, participants’ evolutionary stable strategies in the three phases such as formation, development and control of network public opinion is explored by dynamic evolution game model, respectively, the corresponding guidance of network public opinion evolution is put forward by combining with the case.【Result/conclusion】According to the results of the game, we can see that the joint venture recipients’ activities of issuing false information for help, as well as the donation by the Internet users are the evolutionary strategy for the formation of the network public opinion. The exposure of the incident,and the overall tendency of the Internet users’ oppugn will further enrich the public opinion,which can be controlled by the government’s effective intervention and relevant responsible party’s reasonable explanation,and the public interest gets compensation,resultly the negative impact of public opinion can be alleviated.