【目的/意義】如何理清網絡輿情的傳播機制,從而有效引導與管理網絡行為,成為政府的重要任務。【方法/過程】針對媒體參與報道的網絡輿情傳播,建立了媒體與政府,網民與意見領袖的兩類博弈模型,將考慮公平因素的收益函數引入博弈收益矩陣中。運用向前歸納法建立三階段動態博弈,對媒體和意見領袖選擇非子博弈完美均衡路徑的具體條件進行分析,推導出收益變化率θ的閾值。【結果/結論】針對不同閾值條件下各方最優策略,給出政府應對和管理網絡輿情的最優策略。

【Purpose/significance】How to clarify the communication mechanism of network public opinion, so as to effec-tively guide and manage network behavior, become an important task of the government.【Method/process】Aiming at thespread of network public opinion with the media report participated, the paper establishes two game models of media andgovernment, Internet users and opinion leaders. The return function considering fairness factor is introduced into the gamepayoff matrix. The paper also applies forward induction to establish three stage dynamic game,and analyzes the specific con-ditions of media and opinion leaders choosing non sub game perfect equilibrium path. At last the threshold of yield changerate is given. 【Result/conclusion】Aiming at the optimal strategies under different threshold conditions, the optimal strategyfor government to deal with and manage network public opinion is given.