【目的/意義】新興媒介生產的媒體奇觀表現出一系列新的特征,且對社會有著更深刻的影響。針對目前媒體奇觀只有定性理論研究的現狀,提出了定量預測媒體奇觀輿情熱度發展趨勢的方法。【方法/過程】首先引入層次分析法構建基于微博的媒體奇觀輿情熱度描述指標體系。之后在查閱大量文獻的基礎上,改進馬爾可夫鏈模型,通過劃分更精化的狀態區間、構建狀態轉移矩陣、預測輿情熱度趨勢的步驟,以"慶安槍擊案"的微博數據為實證案例進行實驗。【結果/結論】結果表明,層次分析法構建輿情熱度指標體系和馬爾科夫鏈模型應用于媒體奇觀輿情熱度趨勢預測都具有較高的可行性和準確性,進而為政府、企業和研究人員分析媒體奇觀的輿情發展脈絡提供新的思路和方法。

【Purpose/significance】Media Spectacle produced by new media presents a series of new features and has amore profound impact on society. In view of the present situation that there is only the qualitative theory research on themedia spectacle, this paper puts forward a quantitative method to predict the development trend of the media spectaclepublic opinion.【Method/process】 Firstly,index weight of the heatness of public opinion is calculated through analytichierarchy process.Then on the basis of referring to intensive literature,Markov Chain is improved by dividing the state space,constructing the state transition matrix,and analyzing the trend of the hotness. Taking Sina Weibo as an example,we choosea public opinion hot issue in 2015,"Qing An Railway Station Shooting",to conduct an empirical analysis on the publicopinion hotness.【Result/conclusion】Experiment demonstrates that this method can effectively predict the trend of publicopinion of Media Spectacle,provide new ideas and methods for the government, enterprises and researchers to analyze thetrend of the Media Spectacle.