【目的/意義】Web3.0和自媒體時代的到來,我國網民數量不斷激增,作為有限理性的網民群體,其輿論導向具有不可控性,所以運用演化博弈論的方法能夠從根本上探究輿論演化傳播機制和引導機制。【方法/過程】該文首先運用演化博弈的相關理論知識,分析了在沒有政府懲罰機制下和有政府懲罰機制下網民群體(正確信息傳播者與虛假信息傳播者)的博弈關系并建立了雙方的演化博弈模型,然后分析了在不同參數范圍下網民群體網絡輿論的演化規律,最后通過對假設數值進行計算仿真模擬分析得出相關結論和建議。【結果/結論】研究結果表明:網民群體(正確信息傳播者與虛假信息傳播者)的初始狀態以及政府的懲罰機制的力度對網民輿論的引導及輿論走向起著至關重要的作用。

【Purpose/significance】With the advent of Web3.0 and self-media age, the number of Internet users continues tosoar, as limited rationality groups,the Internet users’ public opinion is not controllable, using the evolutionary game theorycan explore public opinion evolution mechanism and guidance mechanism fundamentally.【Method/process】So firstly, weanalyze the game relationships of Internet users(correct information disseminator and false information disseminator) whichare under the no punishment mechanism government and punishment mechanism government and build the evolutionarygame theory model using the evolutionary game theory. Then, we analyze the evolution law of different parameters Internetusers’ public opinion, and finally,by the computer simulation analysis of the hypothetical data,we obtain the related con-clusions and recommendations.【Result/conclusion】The research results indicate that the groups of Internet users’(correctinformation disseminator and false information disseminator) initial state as well as the intensity of punishment mechanismof government play a crucial role.to guide the public opinion.