考慮分布式發電的優先自用特征與風電站的經濟特性,在貢獻毛益隨機變動前提下,運用實物期權理論構建了分布式風電站投資機會的期權定價模型。求解出貢獻毛益臨界值、最優投資規模、以及延遲投資的期權價值和期望等待時間,通過算例分析驗證了主要結論并給出了參數對均衡狀態影響程度的變動規律。研究發現:對投資有時限的分布式風電站而言,貢獻毛益臨界值、最優投資規模、以及期望等待時間均與貢獻毛益的期望增長率和變動率正相關,而延遲投資的期權價值與此二者相關性存在差異,且影響的顯著性也不同;在一定條件和貢獻毛益波動范圍內,推遲投資的期權價值與相應的期望等待時間隨風電自用占比或初始貢獻毛益的增大而分別增大和減小,但風電自用占比對最優投資規模,以及初始貢獻毛益對貢獻毛益臨界值與最優投資規模并無影響;決策者的最優投資決策需同時考慮貢獻毛益臨界值及其最優投資規模。

Under the premise of contribution margin varying randomly,distributed power generation first serves self-use as well as its economic characteristics are considered.Based on the real options theory,the option pricing model for investment opportunity in distributed wind power stations is established,and the contribution margin threshold,optimal investment scale,the option value and expected waiting time of delayed investment are solved.A case study is presented to validate the main conclusions,and give the influence variation of different parameters on the equilibrium state.It is found that for distributed wind power stations with limited investment time,contribution margin threshold,optimal investment scale,and expected waiting time are all positively related to the expected increase and variation rate of contribution margin.Meanwhile,the option value of delayed investment has different correlations with these two rates,and the significances of the influences are different.In a certain condition and range of contribution margin,the option value of delayed investment and expected waiting time increases and decreases respectively,with the increase of the proportion of generated wind power for self-use or initial contribution margin.However,the proportion of generated wind power for self-use does not influence the optimal investment scale,and the initial contribution margin does not influence the contribution margin threshold and optimal investment scale.The decision-maker’s optimal decision should take both contribution margin threshold and optimal investment scale into consideration.