改革開放以來,中國經濟高速增長,為中國崛起提供了重要的物質基礎與保障。然而,粗放型經濟發展模式也導致嚴重的資源環境問題。金融是現代經濟發展核心,實現中國綠色低碳經濟發展離不開金融支持。本文首先在分析金融發展、經濟增長對碳排放的作用機制基礎上,提出以下研究假說:(1)金融發展對碳排放存在正、負兩種效應,其綜合效應的大小取決于兩種效應的相對大小。(2)環境庫茲涅茲曲線假說并不是穩健的,其成立與計量方法、研究區域等選取有關。(3)金融發展對碳排放的影響在不同經濟發展階段與金融發展水平下存在門檻效應。(4)空間異質性對金融發展與碳排放之間關系存在顯著影響。隨后構建動態面板模型與面板門檻模型,應用系統GMM、固定效應、隨機效應等多種估計方法,在核算中國各省份金融包容性發展指數與碳排放基礎上,結合省級面板數據,并分東、中、西區域,對以上假說進行實證檢驗與分析。得出以下結論:(1)中國金融包容性發展呈現區域性差異,東部金融發展明顯優于中西部地區。(2)當前中國金融發展有利于減少碳排放,促進低碳經濟發展。(3)當以金融發展為門檻變量時,金融發展的碳減排效應是逐漸弱化的。(4)當以經濟增長作為門檻變量時,金融發展的碳減排效應是逐漸增強的。(5)空間異質性影響金融發展與碳排放之間關系——中西部區域內金融發展有利于減少碳排放;東部區域內金融發展卻導致碳排放增加。最后,本文從強化金融在綠色低碳經濟發展中的作用、創新開放格局等方面提出政策建議。

Since the reform and opening up policy was adopted,China has experienced a booming economic growth,which provides a important material basis for the development. However,the noneffective development of economy has led to a serious environmental concern. As the core of modern economic development,finance is a necessary support for low-carbon economy in China. Based on investigating the mechanism of financial inclusive development and economic growth on carbon emissions,this paper puts forward four hypotheses:(1) there may exist two possible effects( positive or negative) of financial inclusive development on carbon emissions,the final effect depends on the relative size of the two effects;(2) the environmental kuznets curve hypothesis is not robust,which is associated the selection of method of measurement and research areas;(3) there may exist threshold effect on the impact of financial inclusive development on carbon emissions at different stages of economic development;(4) spatial heterogeneity has a significant effect on the relationship between financial development and carbon emissions. Based on the calculation of financial inclusion development index and carbon emissions,this paper constructed dynamic panel model and panel threshold model and applied estimation methods such as system GMM,fixed effect and random effect using provincial panel data. We tested the proposed hypothesis within the east,central and west China respectively. The following conclusions are obtained:(1) China ’s financial development shows regional characteristics and financial development in the east China is clearly superior to that of the west and central;(2) China ’s current financial development has a contribution to reducing emission and promotes the development of low-carbon economy;(3) the emission reduction effect of financial development is gradually weakened when financial development is the threshold variable;(4) the emission reduction effect of financial development is gradually increased when economic growth is a threshold variable;(5) Spatial heterogeneity can impact the relationship between financial development and carbon emissions: financial inclusive development contributes to reducing emission in central and west China,but leads to increased emission in the east China. At last,we give policy suggestions on strengthening the role of finance in the low-carbon economy development.