中國空氣污染格局受到政策因素的深刻影響,財政分權和政績考核背景下的地方政府競爭能夠激勵污染性產業發展進而加劇環境污染。政府層面的環境規制和企業層面的技術進步則減少了單位產能污染排放。兩種力量的相互制約塑造了中國城市空氣污染的格局。本文基于2003—2013年地級以上城市數據,以綜合污染指數刻畫空氣污染程度,使用面板數據模型和空間杜賓模型探討空氣污染影響因素及其空間效應。結果表明:(1)在研究時段空氣污染和污染性產業空間動態一致,均有向東部地區轉移的趨勢,污染性產業的存量對污染的加劇作用比增量更為顯著。(2)地方政府競爭能夠顯著增加本地和周邊地區空氣污染。環境規制是抑制空氣污染的重要方式,但本地的高規制將造成周邊地區污染加劇。技術進步能夠有效降低空氣污染,且不具有顯著的空間效應。(3)抑制空氣污染的因素(環境規制、技術進步)比加劇污染的因素(地方政府競爭、污染性產業增長)作用效力更強,在一定程度上解釋了污染產業發展的同時空氣污染程度降低的現象。文章啟示調整政府主導的經濟發展方式,貫徹環境規制的科學制定與嚴格執行,促成企業創新驅動是減輕空氣污染的重要途徑。

Institution has been identified as invisible hands in shaping the spatial distribution of environmental pollution,which particularly can be seen through two opposing forces in contemporary China. On the one hand,increasing competition between local government,led by the fiscal decentralization and growth-oriented cadre evaluation,encouraged the growth of polluting industries and exacerbated industrial pollution. On the other hand,environmental regulation and technological progress may help to reduce pollution emissions. Based on prefectural-level data during 2003-2013,this study investigated how local government competition and environmental regulation work together to reshape the spatial pattern of air pollution in China. Comprehensive pollution index method was used to describe the dynamic of air pollution. Two-way fixed effect model and Spatial Panel Durbin Model were applied to find out the synergy effect as well as spatial effect of different factors. The results indicate that the dynamic of air pollution and polluting industries tend to relocate in the eastern areas. Moreover,the impact of existing polluting industry capacity on air pollution is greater than the new capacity. The results also support the positive and effective role of environmental regulation and technological progress in reducing air pollution. Stringent environmental regulation may alleviate local air pollution but exacerbate the pollution in its neighborhood while government competition will accelerate pollution in both local and neighborhood areas. The results of this article may contribute to the policy maker in three perspectives. Firstly,in order to alter the motivation of government competition,official selection should shift from performance oriented to process oriented and change the emphasis on GDP growth. Secondly,to meet the increasing of environmental claims more efforts should be made to enact and execute environmental regulation. Thirdly,relative policies should be formulated to encourage environmental friendly activities of enterprises and punish polluting firms.