【目的】分析社交媒體中突發公共衛生事件的輿情傳播與演變規律,提出相應輿情監測與輿論引導方案。【方法】基于ELM、TAM模型以及生命周期理論,建立突發公共衛生事件輿情傳播影響因素模型,探究信息發布者、信息內容以及信息發布日期對輿情傳播的影響。【結果】突發公共衛生事件的不同利益群體在輿情發展的不同時期占據輿論主體地位,時效性強、內容新穎的信息傳播更廣泛,官方媒體的發文如果體現出一定的主觀性,其轉發量更大。【局限】只對2018年疫苗事件進行實證分析;在模型普適性驗證方面有待提高。【結論】綜合考慮信息發布者身份類型、信息內容觀點質量以及輿情生命周期的模型能很好地解釋突發公共衛生事件在社交媒體平臺的輿情傳播與演變規律。

[Objective] This paper tries to investigate the rules of public opinion propagation and evolution of public health emergencies and propose corresponding policies in the context of social media era. [Methods] Based on ELM,TAM and life cycle theory, the influencing factor model was established to explore the impact of information publishers,information content and information release time on public opinion propagation of public health emergencies. [Results]The empirical analysis showed that the right to discourse is mastered by different interest groups in different periods of public opinion development. Information with great timeliness and novelty spreads more widely. If official media show some subjectivity, the retweet volume of their tweets will be larger. [Limitations] Only one case was empirically analyzed and the compatibility of the model needs to be improved. [Conclusions] The model that comprehensively considers identity of information source, quality of information content and life cycle is a good way to explain the public opinion propagation and evolution rules of public health emergencies on social media platforms.