文章以2013-2015年民族地區大調查數據為基礎,采用擴展的明瑟收入模型和分位數回歸技術,研究人力資本積累、外出就業對民族地區農村不同收入階層的影響,并進一步運用有序Logit模型對影響農村居民主觀經濟評價的因素進行了實證分析。研究表明,民族地區農村居民的人力資本積累有利于縮小居民間的收入差距。民族地區農村居民從事農業勞動與非農勞動間的收入存在較大的差別,表明民族地區的"劉易斯拐點"還沒有出現,農村居民外出就業能顯著提高其收入水平。民族地區農村少數民族居民的收入顯著低于漢族居民,其主因是少數民族居民平均受教育年限偏低和居民間的收入差距過大造成的。大部分農村居民認為其家庭經濟狀況穩步提升,并對未來自家經濟狀況保持樂觀的心態,而外出就業顯著降低了農村居民對自家經濟狀況的主觀評價。文章認為,人力資本積累決定了勞動生產率的上限,而人力資本能否從低收益的行業或地區流入到高收益的行業或地區,決定了人力資本積累能否轉化為現實的生產力。政府在繼續提升民族地區農村人力資本水平的同時,應進一步完善勞動力市場機制。

Based on 2013-2015 Survey in Ethnic Areas of China and by using extended Mincerian approach and quantile regression,this article studies the influence of human capital accumulation and outgoing employment on different income groups in ethnic rural areas,and further adopts the ordered Logit model to make an empirical analysis on the factors that affect the subjective economic evaluation of rural residents.The study shows the accumulation of human capital in ethnic rural areas is conducive to narrowing the income gap among the residents.And there is a great difference between the incomes of ethnic rural residents engaged in agricultural and non-agricultural,which reflect that the "Lewis turning point" in ethnic areas has not yet appeared,while the rural residents’ outgoing employment can significantly improve their income level.The income of ethnic minority residents in rural areas is significantly lower than their counterparts of the Han population,and the main reason is that the average years of education for ethnic minorities are at the low level and the income gap between the residents is too large.Besides,the majority of rural residents in ethnic areas believe that their family economic status has been steadily improved,and are optimistic about their own economic situation in the future,while outgoing employment reduces the subjective evaluation of their own economic status.The article aruges that the accumulation of human capital determines the upper limit of labor productivity,and whether human capital can flow from low income industries or regions to high income industries or regions determines whether the accumulation of human capital can be converted into real productivity.And while improving the level of human capital in ethnical rural areas,the government should also further improve the labor market mechanism.