在1922年至1924年的歷次民意調查中,軍閥得到平均29. 20%的支持性投票。這說明在兩次直奉戰爭之際,民意中的軍閥尚屬兩分,薰蕕同器,并未形成整體負面形象。這并不是說軍閥及軍閥政治不存在問題,但其問題非盡關乎軍閥個人品性之不良,而是國家制度建設出了差池。民初各根本法及配套法規標榜分權,卻未處理好立法與行政的關系,尤其未處理好不同行政機關對軍隊的統帥權與指揮權的關系,造成亨廷頓所說的軍人"合法"地參與或干預政治的制度條件,而軍隊的私屬性質又惡化了這一局面。軍閥中一些派系曾試圖擺脫這種狀況,實現國家統一,但因"北洋正統"觀念根深蒂固,無以解套。而國民黨卻在蘇俄和中共幫助下,通過改組,與傳統政治分道揚鑣,建設起一支由政黨領導的有主義的軍隊。民意因此而改變。1926年的民意調查顯示,軍閥得票暴跌,國民黨得票劇增。北伐最終取得推翻軍閥統治的勝利,從這一時期民調中南北兩方得票率的變化,可窺大概。

In the several public opinion surveys in 1922-1924,the warlords’approval rating was 29.20%in average.It shows that a general negative image of warlords had not been formed despite the two wars between the Zhili and Fengtian warlords.The problem was understood due to the state building rather than warlords’personal characters.In the early Republican period,the constitution and other laws advocated the division of powers,but they did not deal with the relationship between legislation and administration well enough,so that the military could"legally"participate and intervene politics in this institutional condition.Some cliques of the warlords tried to get rid of this condition and achieve the national unity but they were too deeply trapped in their commitment to the"Beiyang orthodoxy"to reform.However,with the help of the Soviet Russia and the Chinese Communist Party,the Nationalist Party reformed itself to depart from the traditional politics and build an army led by a party devoted to its ideology.As a result,the public opinion changed.In the survey conducted in1926,the approval rating of the warlords declined dramatically,while that of the Nationalist Party increased sharply.The victory of the Northern Expedition thus was foreshadowed by the change of public opinion surveys.