人口老齡化水平不斷提高會阻礙一個國家經濟增長而陷入"中等收入陷阱"嗎?文章在檢驗人口老齡化對經濟增長影響基礎上,進一步分析人口老齡化對中等收入階段跨越概率影響。研究發現:第一,人口老齡化對經濟增長具有顯著負向影響;第二,人口總撫養比水平的提高會顯著降低一個國家或地區中等收入向高收入階段跨越概率,而老年撫養比的提高并不能顯著降低一個國家或地區中等收入向高收入階段跨越概率;第三,提高人力資本和全要素生產率有助于加大一個國家或地區中等收入階段向高收入階段跨越概率。因此,中國應提升人力資本水平,加大研發投入,彌補人口老齡化對經濟增長的負面影響,實現中等收入階段向高收入階段的跨越。

Using cross-country panel data this paper analyzes the relationship between population aging and economic growth,and further examines the impact of population aging on the probability of avoiding the middle-income trap.We find that there is a significant negative relationship between population aging and economic growth.The increase of the overall dependency ratio would decrease the probability of avoiding the middle-income trap.The impact of the old-age dependency ratio on the probability of being fallen into in the middle-income trap is not significant.Enhancement of human capital and technology progress would increase the probability of avoiding the middle-income trap.Therefore,measures should be taken to cope with the negative effect of aging on the economic growth in order to avoid the middle-income trap.These measures include enhancing the level of human capital and increasing investment on research and development.