【目的/意義】為實現網絡輿論危機信息傳播有效分析與控制,在移動社交網絡環境下為危機處理提供參考。【方法/過程】本文利用蝴蝶效應與六度分割理論對傳播模式與傳播路徑進行分析,基于SIR模型提出了SECIRP-D/P危機信息傳播模型,通過主體屬性確定傳播過程參與者之間的轉化率。【結果/結論】通過均衡值、傳播率及主體屬性對傳播效果影響的仿真實驗,驗證了傳播模型的有效性與科學性,結果表明多主體視角下新模型能夠準確分析與描述網絡輿論危機信息傳播過程。

【Purpose/significance】To realize the effectivel analysis and control of network public opinion crisis information dissemination and provide reference for the crisis management under the mobile social network environment.【Method/process】This paper uses the butterfly effect theory and six-degree partition theory to analyze the mode and path of crisis information propagation. The crisis information propagation model SECIRP-D/P is proposed based on the model of SIR, and through the multi-agent attributes to determine the conversion rate between participants in the propagation process.【Result/conclusion】Through equilibrium value, propagation rate and subject attribute to simulate experiments on the propagation effect, the effectiveness and scientificalness of the propagation model are verified. The results show that the new model can accurately analyze and describe the process of crisis information propagation under the multi-agent perspective.