【目的/意義】當前研究突發事件信息傳播的文獻多集中于網絡空間或網絡媒體,而關于傳統媒體在突發事件信息傳播過程中的相關行為研究較為鮮見,傳統媒體是突發事件信息傳播的主要力量,是現行傳媒管理體制下政府與公眾之間傳播、反饋突發事件信息的主要渠道。【方法/過程】應用演化博弈理論,分析了傳統媒體在突發事件信息傳播不同階段的行為,并構建了數學演化模型。【結果/結論】傳統媒體應在理論上突發事件爆發后第一時刻播出,或在其競爭對手自媒體傳播之前的最接近一刻播出,可以取得信息傳播優勢和最佳經濟效益。即當政府可以觀測到媒體的努力行為時,傳統媒體的內容生產方面成本降低,努力水平提高。

【Purpose/significance】At present, most of the literatures on information dissemination of emergencies focus on cyberspace or cybermedia. However, there are few studies focus on the relevant behaviors of traditional media in the process of information dissemination of emergencies. Traditional media are the main force of information dissemination of emergencies, and the main channel of information dissemination and feedback between the government and the public under the current media management system.【Method/process】This paper applies evolutionary game theory to analyze the behavior of traditional media in different stages of information dissemination of emergencies, and constructs a mathematical evolutionary model.【Result/conclusion】Traditional media should be broadcasted at the first moment after the outbreak of emergencies in theory, or at the closest moment before their competitors broadcast from the media, so as to gain the advantages of information dissemination and the best economic benefits. That is, when the government can observe the efforts of the media,the cost of content production of traditional media will be reduced and the level of efforts will be improved.