【目的/意義】將四種不同的投影尋蹤(PP)模型引入到突發事件網絡輿情風險評價研究中,針對有教師值、無教師值和有單指標評價標準的輿情風險評價問題,分別采用兩種PP模型進行實證研究,拓展了輿情風險評價的新方法。【方法/過程】根據前人研究建立的輿情風險評價指標體系和數據,將專家法結果納入PP模型的約束條件中,實現專家主觀判斷結果(意見)與PP模型客觀結果的有機結合,進而建立基于決策者偏好的輿情風險評價PP模型。【結果/結論】PP模型能很好地應用于三類輿情風險評價問題的研究,計算結果與專家法結果具有很好的一致性。指出了現有的應用投影尋蹤分類(PPC)和插值型PPC(IPPC)模型進行輿情風險評價研究存在的問題,提出了建立可靠和有效PP模型的基本原則和注意事項。

【Purpose/significance】For three types of emergency events public opinion risk evaluation(EEPORE))with teacher’s value, without teacher’s value and single-index evaluation criteria, four kinds of projection pursuit(PP)model were applied, and every two PPC models were applied to each type of EEPORE. The specification and standard process of building up the PPC models were introduced in this paper, and being a new method for EEPORE.【Method/process】Based on the literatures with evaluation indexes and sample data of the EEPORE, the expert’s opinions were incorporated into the constraint conditions of the PPC models and the effective combination of the expert’s subjective and the PPC model objective was achieved, the PP models for EEPORE were established based on the decision-maker preference.【Result/conclusion】The PP models are good suitable to three types of EEPORE, and the results of PP models are good agreement with the expert’s opinions. The shortcomings and errors of the published articles applying PP models to EEPORE were discussed and analyzed. The basic principles and the steps for building up the PP models practically were put forwarded.