本文對我國民族地區經濟增長率與各相關變量之間進行了平穩性檢驗、格蘭杰因果檢驗、向量自回歸分析及預測,發現與經濟增長率具有格蘭杰因果的變量,包括高校畢業生增長率、固定資產投資增長率、第二產業所占比重增長率等變量。通過進一步的系數檢驗得出一簡、一繁兩個回歸方程,對經濟增長的解釋力度都分別為81.5%和97.29%,並運用其中相對複雜的模型對經濟增長進行預測,與歷史數據高度擬合,還發現2015年少數民族經濟增速可能會放緩。該回歸方程能夠從數理的角度解釋影響經濟增長的關鍵變量,還能夠定量地描述固定資產投資、二產轉型、經濟周期對當期經濟增速的影響,對政策調控具有一定的指導意義。

The results of stationary test,Grainger causality test and vector auto-regression analysis as well as prediction of economic growth rate of ethnic regions in China show that Grainger causality variables include the growth rates of university graduates,fixed assets investment,and the second industry share. Based on a further coefficient test,two regression equations have been set up,one is simple and the other is complicated with the results of 81. 55% and 97. 29% of economic growth respectively. The prediction of economic growth produced by the complicated equation is highly consistent with historical data,and foretells a slow-down of ethnic minority economic growth in 2015. This equation can not only explain the key variables to influence economic growth from a mathematical point of view,but also can make a quantitative description of the influence of fixed assets investment,the transformation of the second industry and economic cycle on the current economic growth,which is of valuable guiding significance to policy control.