文章利用2014年全國人口變動情況抽樣調查數據，按層次遞進的方式，分析當前我國育齡夫婦類型和生育狀況，得出單獨兩孩政策目標人群和全面兩孩政策的目標人群及年齡構成，利用分類型分年齡的生育意愿數據，分析單獨兩孩政策對近幾年我國出生人口的影響、全面兩孩政策對近幾年我國出生人口以及未來我國勞動年齡人口等人口結構的影響。文章認為，單獨兩孩政策對出生人口的增加影響有限，全面兩孩政策實施后出生人口較多的幾年，大約相當于上世紀八、九十年代出生人口較少的年份，之后，預計出生人口將會逐步減少并趨于穩定;總人口峰值出現年份略有后推，峰值數量稍有增加;該政策對今后我國人口年齡結構的優化、促進出生人口性別比平衡可以起到積極作用。

Based on data from the 2014 annual population change survey,this paper provides estimates of number and structure of the target couples of the selective and universal two-child policy,and conducts prediction of number of births and working age population under the two-child policy.The selective two-child policy has only limited effect on number of births,while the largest annual number of births under the universal two-child policy is roughly similar to the average annual number of births occurred in the 1980 s to 1990 s.Long-term decline in annual number of births is expected under the universal two-child policy.The universal two-child policy will somewhat postpone the time of China’s peak population which will be slightly larger.The universal two-child policy will have positive effect on optimizing China’s population structure and balancing its sex structure.