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題名:製造業不平衡成長對產業結構與所得分配影響之研究
作者:楊文瑞
作者(外文):Wen-Jui YANG
校院名稱:國立台灣科技大學
系所名稱:管理研究所企業管理學程
指導教授:劉代洋
學位類別:博士
出版日期:1999
主題關鍵詞:不平衡成長製造業產業結構所得分配可計算一般均衡模型荷蘭病unbalanced growthmanufacturingindustrial structureincome distributionCGEDutch DiseaseGEMPACK
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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民國五十年代中末期至七十年代早期,台灣製造業成長偏向勞力密集產業,而中低所得家庭大都以勞動所得為主,因此造就工業化與所得分配均化並行的發展經驗。我們觀察台灣七十年代中、末期,製造業內部產業間不平衡成長型態、產業結構調整(製造業生產毛額比率下降),及所得分配均度惡化(五等分戶數家計吉尼係數上升)並存的現象,直覺的想法是,民國七十年代中、末期,台灣製造業朝向以技術人力及資本密集產業發展,使多數勞動密集產業大幅萎縮,可能是逆工業化與所得分配均度惡化的主要原因。
這種部門間不平衡成長造成產業結構調整與所得分配均度惡化的經濟現象,似乎與「荷蘭病」的產生有點類似。本文因此建立一個多產業多家計部門的一般均衡模型來印證,民國七十年代中、末期台灣製造業不平衡成長,轉向技術人力及資本密集產業,是造成產業結構調整的一個原因,而調整過程中產業別的勞動所得與資本報酬分配比例的改變,則是促使家計所得分配也惡化的原因。另外也探討「進出口內生化學習效果」,及關稅全面下降對逆工業化及所得分配均度的影響。
本文模型,一方面擴展Bandara模型,另一方面結合學習效果,而建立一個含有二十九產業、五等分家計單位及「進出口內生化學習效果」之可計算一般均衡模型,來探究台灣製造業產出(供給面)或出口(需求面)部門間不平衡成長,在浮動匯率制度及關稅全面調整的情況下,經由資源移動、支出與進出口內生學習效果,對產業結構及五等分家計所得分配之影響。綜合模擬結果,得到以下幾個重要結論:在民國七十年代中期的經濟結構下,採浮動匯率制度時,(1)製造業產出面不平衡成長 ,在不降關稅時,不論是否有進出口內生學習效果,皆會使製造業比重下降,及所得分配不均化。(2)製造業出口面不平衡成長,在不降低關稅時,不論是否有進出口內生學習效果,也會造成製造業比重下降,但所得分配則不會惡化。(3)進出口內生學習效果會使技術進步率差異擴大及降低資本要素的相對價格,因此對製造業比重及所得分配有不利影響。(4)降低關稅會刺激進口需求,使得進口值大增,在浮動匯率制度下,產生貶值的效果,這一方面可以抵銷匯率升值效果,另一方面,由於進口價格下降,降低各產業的生產成本,因此有利於製造業比重的提高及所得分配均化,另外,由於製造業比重的上升效果,對低所得階層較為有利,因此對所得分配均度的改善也較為有利。
A computable general equilibrium model of Dutch disease economics in Taiwan’s economy is established to examine the impacts of the imbalanced growth in output, endogenous learning effects from import and export and the import tariff reduction. Twenty-nine industry sectors and five quintiles of households are taken to measure their changes in industry structure and functional distribution of income. An imbalanced growth, either from output or export, contributes to the reduction in the share of manufacturing industry, but the deterioration in the functional distribution of income only happen to an imbalanced growth in intersectoral output. A widespread trade liberalization policy helps to mitigate the Dutch disease phenomenon in a sense that de-industrialization and deterioration of the distribution of income by an imbalanced growth in manufacturing industry are not so severe.
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