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題名：分食性新產品之上市策略研究
作者：于健 引用關係
作者(外文)：Chien Yu
校院名稱：淡江大學
系所名稱：管理科學學系
指導教授：陳淼勝
學位類別：博士
出版日期：2001
主題關鍵詞：行銷；產品分食；上市策略；擴散理論；上市時機；最佳化；Marketing；Cannibalizaiton；Introduction Strategy；Diffusion Theory；Time to Market；Optimization
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「顧客導向」的理念使企業必須了解消費者行為的脈動。現今的消費者變得益發精明與理性，故不斷推出差異化的新產品以滿足消費者日新月異的多樣化需求是企業在激烈競爭的市場環境中脫穎而出的重要策略。而新、舊產品在市場上同時競爭的現象使新產品的利潤貢獻勢必對企業現有產品的獲利產生嚴重衝擊。另一方面，量身訂作式的行銷觀念使企業必須於新產品上市前同時規劃產品線中不同區隔的產品定位以滿足更多數的消費者之需求。企業必須面對其產品線中，各種產品之潛在市場的分食現象。由於分食現象可能降低銷售商的產品線總利潤，銷售商必須開發出有效的區隔變數以遏止產品線利潤損失。
本研究以消費者行為為導向，探討銷售商兩種分食性新耐久財之上市策略。新產品擴散理論將被用來描述市場中新產品資訊的傳播現象。銷售商的新產品預告策略將造成消費者的產品選擇改變。對獲得產品資訊之消費者而言，此消費者主觀賦予兩種產品之保留價格與產品之實際價格的差距是影響其產品選擇的重要因素。透過這些因素，本研究擬將消費者群體分成四種類型，並利用產品上市時機與不同類型之消費者的產品選擇而改變產品潛在市場所造成銷售商的利潤影響，建立分析兩種分食性產品最佳上市策略的數學模式。經由不同策略所對應的模式比較，我們找出決定銷售商兩種分食性產品上市策略順序之關鍵。在本研究之假設情況下，透過最佳上市策略模式的最佳解性質與環境因素的敏感度分析，本研究結果顯示無論消費者群體對產品認知價值的機率分配為何，銷售商皆應先上市具有較高的單位利潤之產品。其中（1）如果兩種產品的單位利潤相同，則銷售商應無須顧忌分食現象而採行兩種產品同時上市策略。（2）當兩種產品的單位利潤之差距超過某一水準時，銷售商應僅需上市單位利潤較高的產品，而不上市單位利潤較低之產品。（3）當分食的可能性愈高時，銷售商應愈延後上市低單位利潤之產品。（4）銷售商採順序上市新產品的策略可減緩產品間的分食現象。（5）產品的成本、銷售商對延後利潤回收的容忍度、目標消費者對創新採用的特性、以及銷售商宣布產品資訊的通路都將影響銷售商新產品最佳上市時機之規劃。最後，本研究建立銷售商新、舊產品總折現利潤最佳化之一般模式提供後續有關分食性新產品上市策略研究。
The customer-oriented seller should catch the pulse of customer behavior nowadays. Due to the improving technology of communication, customers become more informative than ever. Under the circumstance, the strategy for the seller to survive on the highly competitive market is to introduce a newer product that differentiated from the existing product successively. However, the overlapping of the life cycles of successive products makes the cannibalization between the newer product and the released products aggregated. On the other hand, the concept of mass customization leads the seller to develop the products that are similar-segmented to each other to satisfy demands of the majority of customers. Hence, the cannibalization between the sellers’ products will be aggregated, and it will decrease the total profit of the sellers’ products. The seller should develop more powerful strategies that are distinguished from the existing methods to solve the profit loss.
This study presents the optimal timing framework for the seller who is going to launch cannibalistic durables and commits the information of the new products before he launches them. We propose a new segmentation variable in launching a new cannibalistic durable: the time-to-market of the new product. Originated from the consideration of the customers’ purchase behavior, we find that the commitment strategy of the seller forces some of customers to change their product choices in favor of the profit of the seller. We present scrupulous managerial implications for the seller. First of all, our result has shown that the comparison between the unit profitabilities of the products is the decisive factor for the seller in selecting an appropriate introduction strategy. According to the principle of the unit profit that we proposed, the seller should launch the product that is more profitable per unit first. As to the selection of the introduction timing of the less profitable product, it is a tradeoff between loss from cannibalization and the postponement of profit for the seller. We proved that the less profit the product contributes per unit, the later the seller launches it. The evidence of our sensibility analysis also shows that the optimal timing of the lower unit profit product introduction varies with other environmental factors, such as the unit costs of the products, the price sensibility of the different types customers, etc. Besides, we find that the more aggressive the attitude of the potential customers in product information acquisition and the lager the scale of the seller’s announcement would advance the lower unit profit product launch time. Furthermore, cannibalization has shown to be of no concern with the introduction sequence of the products, but there is a positive relation between the cannibalization possibility and the launch timing of the product released later. We show sequential introduction can alleviate cannibalization, and the higher the possibility of the cannibalization is, the later the seller launches the lower unit profit product.
At the end of our research, we establish a general model of a discount profit maximization seller who is going to launch a cannibalistic durable for future research.
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