摘要:任何都市都類似人類的生命，具有新陳代謝的過程，在都市內某些地區衰退時，須加以改造，此即「都市更新」，在先進國家，業已將其擴大至經濟發展、社會改造與文化創意，故又稱為「都市再開發」或「都市再生」，也就是從實質環境改善再推展到經濟發展、社會改造與文化創意。台灣地區都市更新之成果寥寥無幾，無法帶動都市之成長與茁壯，幸而各都市內尚有許多公有土地可資利用，若能鼓勵其參與都市再生，必可發生示範作用。
台灣地區實施都市更新，約可劃分為探索時期，初創時期，房屋改建時期，以及推廣時期，但仍限於實質環境改善的都市更新。許多先進國家朝向綜合的都市發展，因為都市更新不但可以改善實質環境，且可促進經濟發展，改善都市環境，並提升社會活動，故我國應順應世界潮流，積極實施都市再生。
公有土地實施都市再生具有三種籌措資金資管道，首先可由市場直接籌措，其次可利用公私合夥或民間融資制度，最後可設法向其他政府基金調度，並申請使用「社會中長期資金」。並依照土地權屬、籌措資金管道及建築物的用途三者關係分析，找出公有土地實施都市再生籌措資金最適當的管道。
本文案例選定原則係以首善之區台北地區為範圍，且已成案或在進行規劃將要進行都市更新基地為優先考慮，並以向金融機構借貸為實施都市再生資金籌措管道，經篩選後選定「南海學園都更案」作為實證分析之案例，透過成本效益分析及進行不動產市場分析，以證實實施都市再生的可行性。首先進行成本效益分析，即使不計若干無形利益,僅以有形利益衡量南海學園都市更新案的效益遠超過成本,故值得推行。然後進行不動產市場分析，結果獲知台北都會區的基礎產業日漸壯大，就業機會提升，更兼所得增加，各種不動產的需求亦隨著上升。其次進行可行性分析，本文在集合住宅、觀光旅館以及辦公大樓三種用途中，建議以採取集合住宅最為有利。最後尚須進行財務分析，同時進行「敏感度分析」的結果，發現淨現值以及內部報酬率對房價的變動最為敏感。經過都市再生的財務分析，發現淨現值雖然降到68億元，該案仍值得開發，但根據「敏感度分析」，都市再生所面對的風險較大，需要謹慎。
本文對都市再生提出以下的建議: (一)我國的都市更新應由狹義的實質環境改善擴充至都市再生，(二) 都市再生的目標應效率與公平兼顧，(三)都市再生的執行項目應包括實質環境、社會、經濟的改善以及文化創意，(四)都市再生應採用突破性的方法，其中又包括: (1)納入不動產市場分析以計算自償性，(2)積極推動TIF以廣籌都市更新的財源，(3) 政府基金應修法靈活運用。
本文自認為對我國學術上的貢獻約有以下各點: (1) 將都市更新的定義擴充為都市再生，(2)收集各國實施都市再生及都市復興的執行項目，(3)引進不動產市場分析以計算自償性等，但後學才疏學淺，尚祈各界先進不吝指教。
關鍵詞: 公有土地 都市再生 資金資籌措機制 不動產市場分析 敏感度分析

Abstract: In a way, a city is similar to a human life in that each ages through its own respective “metabolism” process. When areas of a city began to degrade through aging, repairs and reconstructions will be necessary to sustain or improve its quality – the so-called “Urban Renewal”. In developed countries, often the objectives of “Urban Renewal” have been expanded to address economic development, social reform, and cultural innovations. Hence, the terms “Urban Renovation” and “Urban Regeneration” are used to reflect its effects of environmental improvements as well as subsequent advances in economic development, social reform and cultural innovations. There are few “Urban Renewal” successes in Taiwan, thus far. Most did not help growing the city in any of the aspects mentioned above. Fortunately, there are still a lot of parcels of public land in many cities in Taiwan available. If these parcels of public land are properly incorporated through “Urban Rebirth”, the benefits of the “Urban Rebirth” could be demonstrated and the approach may serve as blueprint for future “Urban Regeneration”.
The implementation of “Urban Renewal” in Taiwan can be categorized in the following four stages, Exploration, Initial Construction, Housing Reconstruction, and Expansion. All of these four stages addressed and focused only on the environment improvements. On the other hand, the “Urban Regeneration” of developed countries often adopted the expanded focus to include the environmental improvements, economic development, as well as social and cultural advancements. Taiwan should follow the approach adopted by of the developed countries to expand our focus in executing “Urban Regeneration” projects.
There are three mechanisms commonly used to fund the “Urban Regeneration” with public land in Taiwan. First, the funding can come from the open market directly. Second, the funding can come from partnerships formed with a combination of public and private entities or other private funding channels. Last, it may be possible to redirect funding from other government offices including application for funding reserved for planning and implementation of mid and long term strategies. The most appropriate funding mechanism can be identified through the analysis and alignment of the land/property ownership, potential funding mechanisms with the purposes or intended usage of the constructions.
The adopted selection criteria of the Urban Regeneration cases for this study were:
(1) The target areas are within the great Taipei metropolitan area,
(2) The plan has been approved or in progress, and
(3) The source of the funding is bank loans.
Based on the above criteria, “Nanhai academic community urban renewal” case was selected as the subject for this case study and for the proof of concept analysis. Through the combination of cost benefit analysis and real estate market analysis, evidence of the feasibility of “Urban Regeneration” for the “Nanhai academic community Urban Regeneration” case with this approach is demonstrated as follows.
Costs-Benefit Analysis - First of all, the result of cost benefit analysis suggests that the benefits of implementation of “Nanhai academic community Urban Regeneration” case far outweighs its cost even when intangible benefits were excluded from the calculations and only the tangible benefits were considered.
Real Estate Market Analysis - Next, the result from the real estate market analysis suggests that the demand for real estate in Taipei will increase as the growth of essential productions and job markets coupled with average income increases.
Feasibility Analysis - Among the usage choices of “Residential Housing”, ”Hotels” and “Office Buildings”, the study suggests that “Residential Housing” will deliver the most benefit of all.
Financial and Sensitivity Analysis - Lastly, the financial and sensitivity analysis shows that the net present value and the internal return ratio would be very sensitive to the housing price. Based on the financial analysis alone, the case would be worth pursuing even if the net present value decreases to 68 billion yens. However, based on the sensitivity analysis, “Urban Regeneration” would face higher risks and decision should be made with great caution.
In terms of “Urban Regeneration”, the study recommends the following:
(1) The definition of “Urban Regeneration” should be broadened from the narrow focus on only the environmental improvements to “Urban Regeneration” as defined earlier in this paper
(2) The goals of Urban Regeneration should consider equally from “effectiveness” and “fairness” perspectives
(3) The implementation of “Urban Regeneration” should target improvements to include environmental, social, economic and cultural innovations
(4) The approach to “Urban Regeneration” should be revolutionized to include
a. Pay back calculation based on Real Estate Market Analysis,
b. Promotion of TIF to expand the funding sources, and
c. Legislative changes to allow flexibility in application of government funds
This study contributes academically in the following three aspects:
(1) Broadened and extended the definition of “Urban Renewal” to “Urban Regeneration”,
(2) Assembled a collection of information on other countries “Urban Regeneration” and “Urban Renovation” experiences
(3) Introduced the use of real estate market analysis for pay back estimation.
Comments and feedback are greatly appreciated.
Keywords:
Public Land
Urban Regeneration
Financial Raising Mechanism
Real Estate Market Analysis
Sensitivity Analysis