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題名:台灣上市公司財務危機預警新模型之建構
作者:陳俊卿
作者(外文):Jyun-Cing Chen
校院名稱:淡江大學
系所名稱:財務金融學系博士班
指導教授:邱建良
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2019
主題關鍵詞:財務危機總危險分數企業診斷Financial distressTotal hazard scoreEnterprise diagnosis
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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本研究在財務危機預測變數的選取以及財務危機預警模型的建構上,採用與傳統文獻完全不同的創新方法。本研究採用與財務危機公司相同年度、相同產業中所有公司的資料,因此,不會有對危機公司過度取樣的問題;在作比較時,亦是將危機公司的財務資料,與相同年度、相同產業中所有公司的財務資料相比,因此,也不會有將不同年度、不同產業公司的資料混在一起的問題。由本研究模型中的財務變數計算所得的「總危險分數」,在發生危機的前一年,確實具有財務危機預警的功能。
This study adopts a totally different method in terms of selecting the prediction variables of financial distress and the construction of predicting financial distress model. This study uses total data of all companies in the same year and the same industry with the financial distress company, so it can avoid the problem of over-sampled in distress company. The financial data of distress companies compare with all the financial data of all companies in the same industry and the same year, avoiding the problem that mixed the data which are in different years and different industries. The “total hazard score” produced from this paper indeed has the function of predicting financial distress one year before distress.
參考文獻
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