國際經濟的三篇實證研究__臺灣人文及社會科學引文索引資料庫

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題名：	國際經濟的三篇實證研究
作者：	鄧凱方
作者(外文)：	Teng, Kai-Fang
校院名稱：	國立清華大學
系所名稱：	經濟學系
指導教授：	林靜儀
學位類別：	博士
出版日期：	2020
主題關鍵詞：	油價；預測；天然災害；出口；全球化；所得不均；oil price；forecasting；natural disaster；export；globalization；inequality
原始連結：	連回原系統網址
相關次數：	被引用次數:期刊(0) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0) 排除自我引用:0 共同引用:0 點閱:0

本論文包含三篇與國際經濟有關的實證研究。第一篇旨在利用1985年1月至2018年12月的月資料探討不同預測技巧在油價驅動因素分析與預測效力方面的特性。第二篇重點在研究過去文獻中被指出對減緩自然災害對總體經濟衝擊的國家特性，是否同樣具有抵禦天然災害對出口衝擊之效力。第三篇則借助1981至2006年39個中所得國家樣本，實證分析經貿開放與個別國家內所得不均之間的關聯性。
第一章的研究主軸在於探究利用因素模型（factor models）與收縮方法（shrinkage methods）應用在油價驅動因素分析以及油價預測表現上的特性。鑒於多數油價分析或預測的研究所使用的變數常遭遇資料更新修正所可能衍生的問題，我們特別篩選無須更新修正的數據進行實證研究。利用1985至2018年的月資料，並以均方預測誤差（mean squared forecasting error, MSFE）作為評判標準，我們的實證結果顯示，相對於短期預測，這兩類方法在長期預測的表現上較常優於隨機漫步與自我回歸等基準模型；且每種方式各自在不同外在環境變化動態下具有優勢。將這兩類方法應用在油價驅動因素分析時，借助因素模型所形成的因子以及收縮方法所篩選出的重要變數，實證結果顯示不確定性風險以及金融化（financialization）和不同商品市場間的傳遞效果等是影響油價軌跡相當重要的驅動因素。
第二章旨在利用1990至2010年間87個國家依據國際貿易標準分類1碼（SITC 1-digit）分類層級的出口資料，分析國家特性（如人力資本水準、制度品質、國家規模、國內資本水準、金融開放程度）對於一國應對天然災害對出口衝擊的緩衝能力的影響。以地震與洪災作為天然災害的代表，實證結果顯示具有較高所得水準、較佳制度品質或較高金融開放程度的國家，在遭遇天然災害對出口的衝擊時，具有較強的抵禦能力。此外，具有較豐厚人力資本或較高國內資金水準的國家，通常在遭遇洪災時，出口所受的負面衝擊較小；政府規模較大的國家，則在遭遇地震衝擊時表現較佳。實證結果另發現地震對出口造成的即時衝擊通常較洪災更為嚴重，但地震對出口的衝擊會隨時間的流逝而遞減，且無論在農業部門或製造業部門都可觀察到此一地震對出口衝擊逐步鈍化之現象。
第三章主要借助1981至2006年間39個中所得國家的資料，探討全球化，尤其是開放外人直接投資與對外直接投資，對於國家所得不均的影響。實證結果顯示開放貿易與外人投資流動對於所得不均具有顯著影響，但其影響方向取決於國家的地理區位與經濟體系。開放外資流入（inward FDI）通常對轉型經濟體與拉丁美洲國家的所得分配帶來不利影響，但卻有助於改善其他中所得國家的所得不均情況。反之，開放對外直接投資（outward FDI）與其他中所得國家的所得不均程度具正向關聯，而拉丁美洲國家與轉型經濟體的所得不均程度則與開放對外投資呈負向關係。值得注意的是，所有實證結果均顯示人力資本的改善是實現社會平等最有效且可靠的途徑。

以文找文

This dissertation consists of three independent essays regarding international economics. The first essay uses monthly data from January 1985 to December 2018 to investigate the forecasting properties and driving forces of crude oil prices by two main approaches that are frequently used in a data-rich environment. The second essay aims to explore whether some country’s characteristics demonstrated by the existing literatures as tending to reduce damages or provide buffer for macroeconomic performance in the aftermath of the disaster event can mitigate the contemporaneous and lagged harmful effects on exports. The third essay examines the relation between openness and within-country income inequality, using a group of 39 middle-income countries over the period from 1981 to 2006.
In the first chapter, the forecasting properties and driving forces of crude oil prices are investigated using two main approaches that are frequently used in a data-rich environment: factor models and shrinkage methods. In particular, the variables examined are not subject to revisions, which overcomes any possible bias that may be introduced when using ex-post revised data. Basing on monthly data from January 1985 to December 2018 via the criteria implied by mean squared forecasting error (MSFE), we discover that factor models and shrinkage methods outperform both random walk and autoregressive benchmarks at the long horizon more frequently than at the short horizon, and each method has individual advantages for forecasting oil prices at certain horizons corresponding to different environmental dynamics. By analyzing the factors extracted by using factor models and the influential variables selected by using shrinkage methods, our results indicate the importance of uncertainty risk and the influence of financialization and cross-market transmission effects on the trajectory of oil prices.
In the second chapter, we use panel data of 87 countries basing on SITC 1-digit product export data over 1990-2010, to examine the importance of human capital, institutional quality, government size, domestic capital level and capital account openness in determining a country’s ability to mitigate the contemporaneous and lagged impacts of natural disasters on exports. Taking earthquake and flood shocks as represents, three conclusions emerged. First, countries with higher income level, better institution quality or higher degree of openness to capital account are able to endure natural shocks on exports better. Higher human capital and higher level of domestic credit provide mitigating effects on the flood shocks on exports, while bigger government are verified to have ability to alleviate the impact of earthquake shocks on exports. Second, our empirical results suggest that earthquake shocks typically trigger more sever negative impacts on exports relative to flood shocks. However, the adverse effect of earthquake on exports tend to be diminishing overtime. Finally, the diminishing tendency of the marginal effects of earthquake can be witness in both agricultural and manufacturing sectors.
The third chapter examines how globalization in general and inward and outward FDI in particular affect inequality basing on panel data of a group of 39 middle-income countries over 1981–2006. Open to trade and open to inward or outward FDI are found to affect income distribution distinctively, and the directions of their impacts depend on geographical region and economic system. Open to inward FDI tends to affect income distribution adversely in transition economies and Latin American countries, but marginally improves income distribution in countries of the reference group. In contrast, open to outward FDI is positively associated with inequality in the reference group whereas negatively associated with that of the other two groups of countries. Crucially, improvement in human capital appears to be the single most powerful and reliable way to attaining a more equal society.

以文找文

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