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題名：基於城鎮化率、土地循環、水資源循環視角下的中國新型城鎮化效率研究
作者：林一諾
作者(外文)：LIN, LI-NUO
校院名稱：東吳大學
系所名稱：經濟學系
指導教授：邱永和
學位類別：博士
出版日期：2023
主題關鍵詞：數據包絡分析法；新型城鎮化；建築業效率；城鎮土地循環效率；水系統循環效率；Data envelopment analysis (DEA)；New-type urbanization；Construction efficiency；Urban land cycle efficiency；Urban water cycle efficiency
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新型城鎮化的提出標誌著中國城鎮化發展的重大轉型，其意指解決由高速的擴張產生的城市病，如「土地城鎮化」快於人口城鎮化、建成區人口密度偏低、城市佈局不盡合理、環境承載壓力加大等問題，以城鄉統籌、城鄉一體、產城互動、節約集約、生態宜居、和諧發展為發展重點。本研究意欲通過城鎮化率、土地配置、水資源循環三個不同的視角，依次針對城鎮化進程中面臨的突出問題進行分析探討。
在第二章中，本研究使用Undesirable SBM Dynamic Exogenous DEA模型，在考慮中國東中西三區域城鎮化水準差異後，對與人口流動密切相關的建築業的盈利能力、資源配置、能源消耗和碳排放效率進行評估並加以闡釋。實證結果顯示：首先，中國各地區間的建築效率存在差異：呈現東部高，中部次之，西部低的狀態。其次，中國各地區間的建築效率的變化趨勢存在差異。東部地區效率值最高點位於研究期間之初，此後一直下降；中部在2012年前後達到峰值，此後一直下降；東部則是逐年上升，直到2017年達到峰值。最後，城鎮化會對建築業能源效率起到促進作用，但依據城鎮化的深化程度，其作用力亦有差異。當城鎮化率約為60%時，建築業效率值改善最高。
在第三章中，本研究建立了一個可循環的Two stage Undesirable Dynamic Recycle SBM-DEA模型，以衡量中國各省份的中國城鎮土地循環效率。土地系統包括土地使用子系統(S1)和土地流轉子系統(S2)。實證結果顯示：首先，土地循環系統綜合效率呈現西部最高，東部次之，中部最低的態勢；土地使用子系統(S1)效率呈現西部最高，東部次之，中部最低的態勢；土地流轉子系統(S2)效率呈西部最高，中部次之，西部最低的狀態。其次，土地使用子系統(S1)效率和土地流轉子系統(S2)效率恆為1的省份共有4個，分別為內蒙古、雲南、寧夏、和新疆，皆為西部地區省份。最後，土地征收指標(Id1)效率大多數省份表現都不錯，唯北京市的土地征收指標效率距離效率前沿有高達70%的提升空間；土地違法指標(Id2)整體表現不佳，僅有內蒙古、雲南、寧夏、和新疆的效率值為1；天津、上海、福建、湖南、內蒙古、貴州、雲南、青海、寧夏、和新疆的土地劃撥(Id3)和土地出讓(Id4)指標效率恆為1，山東、湖北、遼寧、和重慶需注重提升土地劃撥(Id3)指標效率，浙江和廣東省需注重提升土地出讓(Id4)指標效率，北京和海南在兩指標效率上皆有較大提升空間。
在第四章中，本研究採用Three stage Recycle Dynamic Undesirable DDF-DEA模型，將水系統劃分為可循環的用水子系統(S1)、汙水處理子系統(S2)、和水再生子系統(S3)，評估2017年至2020年黃河流域42城的水系統效率。實證結果顯示：首先，42城三個子系統效率值整體呈現用水子系統(S1)、汙水處理子系統(S2)高，水再生子系統(S3)效率低的態勢。其次，2017年至2020年期間，42個城市的綜合水系統循環效率的平均值僅為0.76。研究期間三階段效率值恆為1的城市共有4個，分別為四川省成都市、河南省鄭州市、山東省棲霞市、和山東省安丘市。最後，受平均再生水管道長度指標(Id1)和再生水生產能力指標(Id2)的效率偏低的影响，水再生子系統(S3)的效率在三個子系統中最低。城市可以嘗試通過改善平均再生水管道長度指標(Id1)效率和再生水生產能力指標(Id2)效率來進一步提升水再生子系統(S3)效率。
The proposal of new-type urbanization marks a major transition in the development of China's urbanization, and solves the problems caused by rapid expansion, such as "land urbanization" faster than population urbanization, low population density in built-up areas, unreasonable urban layout, and environmental problems. New-type urbanization focuses on urban-rural integration, urban-rural integration, industry-city interaction, conservation and intensification, ecological livability, and harmonious development. This study intends to analyze the problems in the process of urbanization from the perspective of urbanization rate, land allocation, and water resource cycle.
In the second chapter, this study considers the differences in the urbanization levels of China's eastern, central and western regions and uses the Undesirable SBM Dynamic Exogenous DEA model to evaluate the profitability, resource allocation, energy consumption and carbon emission efficiency of the construction industry that is closely related to population mobility. The empirical results show that: first, there are differences in construction efficiency among different regions in China. The efficiency is high in the east, followed by the center, and low in the west. Second, there are differences in the changing trends of building efficiency among different regions in China. The highest efficiency value in the eastern region was at the beginning of the study period and has been declining since then. The central part peaked around 2012 and has been declining since then. In the east, it rose year by year until it reached its peak in 2017. Finally, urbanization will play a role in promoting the energy efficiency of the construction industry, but its effect will vary according to the degree of urbanization. When the urbanization rate is about 60%, the efficiency value of the construction industry improves the most.
In the third chapter, this study builds a recyclable Two stage Undesirable Dynamic Recycle SBM-DEA model to measure China's urban land cycle efficiency in various provinces of China. The land system includes the land use subsystem (S1) and the land flow subsystem (S2). The empirical results show that: first, the overall efficiency of the land circulation system is the highest in the west, followed by the east, and the lowest in the center; the efficiency of the land use subsystem (S1) is the highest in the west, followed by the east, and the lowest in the center; the land flow rotor system ( S2) The efficiency is the highest in the west, followed by the center, and the lowest in the west. Secondly, there are four provinces in which the efficiency of the land use subsystem (S1) and the efficiency of the land flow rotor system (S2) are constant at 1, namely Inner Mongolia, Yunnan, Ningxia, and Xinjiang, all of which are provinces in the western region. Finally, the efficiency of land expropriation index (Id1) is performed well in most provinces, but the efficiency of land expropriation index in Beijing has a room for improvement of up to 70% from the efficiency frontier. The overall performance of the land illegal index (Id2) is not good, and only Inner Mongolia, Yunnan, Ningxia, and Xinjiang have an efficiency value of 1. The index efficiency of land allocation (Id3) and land transfer (Id4) in Tianjin, Shanghai, Fujian, Hunan, Inner Mongolia, Guizhou, Yunnan, Qinghai, Ningxia, and Xinjiang is always 1. Shandong, Hubei, Liaoning, and Chongqing need to focus on improving the efficiency of land allocation (Id3) indicators. Zhejiang and Guangdong provinces need to focus on improving the efficiency of land transfer (Id4) indicators. Both Beijing and Hainan have a large room for improvement in the efficiency of these two indicators.
In the fourth chapter, this study uses the Three stage Recycle Dynamic Undesirable DDF-DEA model to divide the water system into a recyclable water subsystem (S1), a sewage treatment subsystem (S2), and a water regeneration subsystem (S3 ), assessing the water system efficiency of 42 cities in the Yellow River Basin from 2017 to 2020. The empirical results show that: firstly, the 42 cities present a trend of high efficiency of water subsystem (S1) and sewage treatment subsystem (S2), and low efficiency of water regeneration subsystem (S3). Second, from 2017 to 2020, the average value of the circulation efficiency of the comprehensive water system in 42 cities is only 0.76. During the study period, there were 4 cities with the efficiency value of the three stages being 1, namely Chengdu in Sichuan Province, Zhengzhou in Henan Province, Qixia in Shandong Province, and Anqiu in Shandong Province. Finally, affected by the low efficiency of the average recycled water pipeline length index (Id1) and the recycled water production capacity index (Id2), the efficiency of the water regeneration subsystem (S3) is the lowest among the three subsystems. The city can further improve the efficiency of the water regeneration subsystem (S3) by improving the efficiency of the average recycled water pipeline length indicator (Id1) and the recycled water production capacity indicator (Id2) efficiency.
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