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題名:Oldest-Old Mortality Rates and the Gompertz Law: A Theoretical and Empirical Study Based on Four Countries
書刊名:人口學刊
作者:余清祥 引用關係
作者(外文):Yue, Jack C.
出版日期:2002
卷期:24
頁次:頁33-58
主題關鍵詞:Gompertz's lawMortality rates of the elderlySimulationMaximum likelihoodWeighted least squareGompertz模型高齡死亡率電腦模擬最大概似估計加權最小平方法
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(6) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:6
  • 共同引用共同引用:0
  • 點閱點閱:42
高齡老年人(65歲以上)的死亡率歷來都被認為滿足Gompertz模型,實證中有不少高齡資料以此假設來配適,但因受限於資料量的不足,鮮少有研究以統計檢定的觀點檢視Gompertz模型是否合適,因而至今仍有正反兩派意見支持與反對將老年人死亡率以Gompertz模型來配適或推估。有鑑於此,本研究提出一套檢測Gompertz假設的方法,包括模型的檢定、參數的估計、及藉,由電腦模擬(拔靴法)得到參數估計值的標準差。值得一提的是本方法也可用於僅有單一年度各年齡別的死亡資料,有別於過去研究中統計檢定需要兩組以上,(也就是兩個以上的年度)的各年齡別的死亡資料。本文除了實證部分採用日,本、瑞典、法國、美國這四個國家的歲以上的死亡資料(資料來源:美國柏克萊大學死亡率資料庫與Kannisto,1994) ,也藉由電腦模擬檢驗本文提出的方法是否正確。除此之外,實證中常因樣本數的不足,而將原先單一年度的資料延長成合併數個年度(通常為五年或十年)的資料,本文第二部分也將探討這種,將不同特性的樣本合併對檢測Gompertz假設可能造成的影響。
Testing the Gompertz law (i.e. the law of geometrical progression) for elderly mortality ratès has long been discussed in the literature, but tests based on a set of yearly age-specific data have not been fully explored yet. In the first part of this paper, we propose a standard operating procedure for testing the Gompertz assumption using yearly age-specific mortality data. Methods used in the procedure include estimation of parameters in the Gompertz law and their standard errors via ,bootstrap simulation. In addition to the oldest-old (i.e. ages 80 and above) data from Japan, Sweden, France, and the U.S. (Data sources: Berkeley Mortality ,Database and Kannisto, 1994), a simulation study is used to demonstrate the validity of the proposed procedure. In practice the period of data collection is often prolonged to 5 or 10 years in order to accumulate sufficient sample sizes. However, a longer data collection period is likely to mix data with different attributes and cause problems in the parameter estimation. Thus, in the second part of this paper, we discuss the impacts of the data collection period and population sizes on the ,testing results.
期刊論文
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4.Tuljapurkar, S.、Boe, C.(1998)。Mortality change and forecasting: how much and how little do we know?。North American Actuarial Journal,2(4),13-47。  new window
5.Brass, William(1974)。Perspectives in Population Prediction: Illustrated by Statistics of England and Wales。Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A: General,137(4),532-570。  new window
6.Coale, A.、Guo, Guang(1989)。Revised regional model life tables at very low levels of mortality。Population Index,55(4),613-643。  new window
7.Keyfitz, N.(1982)。Choice of function for mortality analysis: effective forecasting depends on a minimum parameter representation。Theoretical Population Biology,21,329-352。  new window
8.Thatcher, A. R.(1999)。The long-term pattern of adult mortality and the highest attained age。Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A: Statistics in Society,162,5-43。  new window
9.Carnes, B. A.、Olshansky, S. J.、Grahn, D.(1996)。Continuing the search for a law of mortality。Population and Development Review,22(2),231-264。  new window
10.Pike, M. C.、Finch, C. E.(1996)。Maximum life span predictions from the Gompertz mortality model。Journal of Gerontology, A: Biological Sciences,51(3),183-194。  new window
11.Wilmoth, J.、Skytthe, A.、Friou, D.、Jeune, B.(1996)。The oldest man ever? A case study of exceptional longevity。The Gerontologist,36(6),783-788。  new window
12.Prentice, R. L.、El Shaarawi, A.(1973)。A model for mortality rates and a test of fit for the Gompertz force of mortality。Applied Statistics,22(3),301-314。  new window
13.Thatcher, A. R.(1990)。Some results on the Gompertz and Heligman and Pollard laws of mortality。Journal of the Institute of Actuaries,117,135-149。  new window
14.Olshansky, S. J.、Carnes, B. A.(1997)。Ever since Gompertz。Demography,34(1),1-15。  new window
15.Pollard, J. H.(1987)。Projection of age-specific mortality rates。Population Bulletin of the United Nations,22,55-69。  new window
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會議論文
1.Willets, R.(1999)。Mortality in the next millennium。沒有紀錄。  new window
圖書
1.London, D.(1985)。Graduation: The Revision of Estimates。Graduation: The Revision of Estimates。Winsted, CT:ACTEX Publications。  new window
2.Kannisto, V.(1994)。Development of Oldest-Old Mortality, 1950-1990: Evidence from 28 Developed Countries。Development of Oldest-Old Mortality, 1950-1990: Evidence from 28 Developed Countries。沒有紀錄。  new window
3.余清祥(1997)。修勻:統計在保險的運用。修勻:統計在保險的運用。臺北。  延伸查詢new window
 
 
 
 
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