出口與經濟成長的因果關係：臺灣的實證研究__臺灣人文及社會科學引文索引資料庫

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題名：	出口與經濟成長的因果關係：臺灣的實證研究
書刊名：	經濟論文叢刊
作者：	黃台心
作者(外文)：	Huang, Tai-hsin
出版日期：	2002
卷期：	30:4
頁次：	頁465-490
主題關鍵詞：	共整合；因果關係檢定；出口導引經濟成長；Cointegration；Causality test；Export-let growth
原始連結：	連回原系統網址
相關次數：	被引用次數:期刊(11) 博士論文(1) 專書(0) 專書論文(0) 排除自我引用:10 共同引用:0 點閱:30

　　　　　本研究使用四變數（所得、出口、固定資本形成及貿易條件）向量自我迴歸模型，分別採用Toda and Phillips（19331994）和Toda and Yamamoto（1995）兩種Granger無因果關係檢定法，探討出口導引經濟成長假說，是否適用於臺灣。實證分析結果，兩種方法均無法拒絕此假說，顯示政府過去採行的出品擴張政策，成功地導引總體經濟成長．另外，經濟成長刺激出口增加的假說，遭到兩種方法的拒斥。

以文找文

　　　　　The current paper tests the export-led growth hypothesis using Taiwan's time series data from 1951 to 1998 within the framework of four-variable vector autoregressive (VAR) models that contain unit roots. Two testing procedures are employed. One is proposed by Toda and Phillips (1993,1994), which employs a Johansen-type error correction model. The 0ther is a lag-augmented VAR approach, proposed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995), which need not take into account possible integration and cointegration among series. Empirical results from both approaches appear to reject the null hypothesis of Granger no-causality from export to output. However, no causal link from output to export is found.

以文找文

期刊論文
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圖書
1.	Hansen, H.、Juselius, K.(1995)。CATs in RATs: Cointegration Analysis of Time Series。Evanston, IL：Worldwide Press。
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其他
1.	Fawson, C.，Chang, T.(1994)。Cointegration, causality, error-correction, and export-led growth in six countries: Japan, Philippine, South Korea, Taiwan, United Kingdom, and United States，0。

圖書論文
1.	Tran, H.、Hendry, D. F.、Ericsson, N. R.(1994)。Cointegration, seasonality, encompassing and the demand for money in the United Kingdom。Nonstationary Time Series Analysis and Cointegration。New York, NY：Oxford University Press。
2.	Geweke, J.(1984)。Inference and Causality in Economic Time Series Models。Handbook of Econometrics。Netherlands：Elsevier。

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