自民國七十五年以來，我國經濟快速轉型升級，由最近資料研判，我國轉型及升級仍會繼續下去。但各異對我國產業升級的成果與未來的展望不清楚。所以本究以過去十二年（民國七十五年~八十七年）的資料，知我國製造業生產指數成長率逐年下降，製造業佔GDP的比例由75年之39.4%下降至84年的28.1%，製造業比重下降的原因是製造業成長率低於全經濟的平均成長率。製造業投資佔製造業附加價值的比例也由1980舞初期的接近30%，逐年遞減，且1985、1986、1987年已低於20%，充分顯示投資意願的低落，最近幾年，才稍見起色，但製造業的投資已落後日、韓已久。臺灣產業在面對長期貿易順，加上我國產業對出口依賴，所以我們面臨的產業升級的壓力也高於其他國家。 近年在國內外經濟環境轉變的衝擊下，為數不少的廠商選擇對外投資作為經營轉型的策略，根據臺經所作的統計，在對外投資約六成的大、東南亞投資、不僅帶動我國與這些地區的雙邊貿易，更造成我國出口地區、產品構的改變。 同時包括我國的新興工業化國家大量對大陸及東南亞投資，使東亞地區國際分工的型態發生變化，本文將分成1世界貿易之移轉及東亞國家出口結構之轉變2我國對開發中國家出口的擴張3我國產品被開發中國家替代趨勢4替代先進國家的成果來探討同時為瞭解臺灣產業升級的現狀，擬分成出口與生產結構，生產力、國際競爭力來探討。由出口結構發現低勞力、高資本、高技術人力密集產業已站穩腳步，使企業界穩定投入資金。從分業的勞動生產力指數知近年來以石油及煤製品、電力及電子機械器材業表現最佳。且臺灣技術密集產品在國際市場競爭力有提升傾向，但勞力密集產品的競爭力有停滯甚至下跌傾向。 綜合上述各點，可知國內製造業的成長由快速轉為緩慢，雖然製造業的比重的下降，乃是經濟發展到一定程度後的必然現象，但由於國內服務業的國際競爭力不高，在我們的服務業未能發到足以大量輸出之前，我們仍須積極促進製造業的成長，維持長期的經濟的發展，以日本的經為例，本文認為製造業佔GDP的比重應維持28%以上。此外國內的產業結構過於集中電力電子機械器材業，依賴過深，未來景氣的波動可能加劇。再加上我國對香港、大陸存有龐大順差，出口過於集中大陸，對總體經濟的安定也有不利影響。

Since 1986, our economy has developed transitions upgrade rapidly. According to recent data, our manufacturing industry is continuing to upgrade. However, the future performance of the industry is still unclear. According to the data of last twelve years (1986~1998), the production index of our manufacturing industry is decreasing. The rate of manufacturing industry’s production to GDP (gross domestic product) decreased from 39.4% of 1986 to 28.1% of 1995. That the growth rate of manufacturing industry was lower than that of the general economy. The investment of manufacturing industry to the value-added of manufacturing industry was about 30% in early 1980’s, but it is less than 20% in 1985, 1986 and 1987. it shows that the willingness to invest was down. although in the latest years it has improved, investment in the manufacturing industry has been falling behind Korea and Japan for a long time. After our long-term trade surplus and dependence on exports, we are confronted with greater pressure of industry upgrade much more than other countries. Upon the impulsion of international economical circumstance change, many corporations adopt foreign investment as their policy of management transition. According to the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research, 60% of foreign investment in mainland China and south-east Asia not only raised the trade between the area and Taiwan, but also changed our production structure and export areas. When newly industrializing countries, including our country, have invested in Mainland China and Southeast Asia, There was a big change in the international division of labor in theses areas. This study will focus on four points: 1. Transition of international trade and the change of the export structures of Southeast Asia. 2. Expansion of our country’s exports to developing countries. 3. Our country’s products replacement by products from developing countries. 4. The achievement of replacement of product from developed countries. In order to comprehend the present status of Taiwan’s industrial development, we explore export structures、product productivity and international competition. From the export structure, we found that the labor-saving, capital-intensive and technique-intensive industries grew rapidly. From the structure of product, the technique-intensive industry shifted to capital-intensive. It means the technique-intensive industry is on firm ground and keeps drawing capital into this industry. According to labor productivities of individual industries, the performance of the petrochemical, firing, electrical and electronics industries were superior to others. Although our technique-intensive products in on upward trend. Labor-intensive products are becoming les competitive. In conclusion, the growth of our manufacturing industry has slowed down, and the rate of our manufacturing production to GDP is also decreasing. This is inevitable in the process of economic development. However the international competitiveness of our service industry is still weak. We should make an effort to push the manufacturing industry to improve until the products of our service industry can be exported in large scale in order to maintain economic development. We suggest that the manufacturing industry should exceed 28% of GDP according to the experience of Japan. Besides, our structure is excessively concentrated in the electronics industry. Too much d\dependence on this sector, may cause the business cycle to fluctuate drastically. The huge surplus to Hong Kong and Mainland China, the large proportion of exports concentrated on Mainland China are also harmful to the stability of our macro economy.