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題名:美國9/11事件前後之股價、匯率、利率間波動動態條件相關性研究--以臺灣、美國、南韓市場為例
書刊名:創新與管理
作者:杜玉振 引用關係王建文
作者(外文):Tu, Yu-chenWang, Chien-wen
出版日期:2010
卷期:7:2
頁次:頁41-68
主題關鍵詞:9/11事件動態條件相關多變量GARCH跨市場聯動American 9/11 terrorist attacksDynamic conditional correlationMultivariate GARCHMarket linkages
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(0) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:0
  • 共同引用共同引用:19
  • 點閱點閱:47
本研究旨在探討美國9/11事件發生期間與發生前後,台、美、韓三國的股價、匯率、利率市場間的波動動態變化;研究樣本期間為1999年10月1日至2006年1月24日,並採用Engle(2002)提出之DCC-MV GARCH模型來分析。經實證發現:(1)911事件期間,各國股、匯、利市場的短期波動值(條件變異數值)均顯著增大,且不同市場間的波動動態相關係數均具落後一日的顯著增大。(2)長期而言,自911事件發生後,在市場本身的波動值方面,各國股、匯市場均顯著增大,但利率市場卻顯著縮小或無顯著波動;在市場間的波動動態相關係數方面,不同國家相同市場間的相關性變動較顯著,同一國家不同市場間的相關性變動則不顯著。
The purpose of this paper is to investigate dynamic changes of the volatilities among stock indices, exchange rates, and interest rates in Taiwan, America, and South Korea during and after the period of American 9/11 terrorist attacks. Using sample data from October 1, 1999 to January 24, 2006, this study applies the Dynamic Conditional Correlation Multivariate GARCH model proposed by Engle (2002) to estimate the volatilities of markets themselves and the dynamic conditional correlations between different markets. The empirical results show: (1) during the period of 9/11 incident, both the short-run volatilities of every market and the short-run dynamic correlations between different markets enlarged significantly, but all correlations with a time lag of one day; (2) after 9/11 incident, the long-run volatilities of stock and exchange markets in all countries enlarged significantly, but the volatilities of interest rate markets diminished significantly or changed insignificantly; the long-run dynamic correlations between the same markets of different countries changed significantly, but the correlations between different markets of the same countries changed insignificantly.
期刊論文
1.王冠閔、吳書慧(200612)。臺灣股、匯市與美國股市傳導機制之實證分析。運籌研究集刊,10,1-15。new window  延伸查詢new window
2.徐清俊、董昭伶(2004)。利率變動與上市壽險公司股票報酬之關聯性研究-GARCH模型之應用。遠東學報,21(1),145-158。  延伸查詢new window
3.Basurto, G.、Ghosh, A.(2001)。The Interest Rate–Exchange Rate Nexus in Currency Crises。IMF Staff Papers,47,99-120。  new window
4.Chou, R. Y.、Lin, J. L.、Wu, C. S.(1999)。Modeling the Taiwan Stock Market and International Linkages。Pacific Economic Review,4(3),305-320。  new window
5.Clare, A. D.、Maras, M.、Thomas, S. H.(1995)。The integration and efficiency of international bond markets。Journal of Business Finance and Accounting,22(2),313-322。  new window
6.Furman, J.、Stiglitz, J. E.、Barry P. Bosworth、Steven Radelet(1998)。Economic Crises: Evidence and Insights from East Asia。Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,2,1–35。  new window
7.Glick, G.、Rose, A. K.(1999)。Contagion and Trade, Why Are Currency Crisis Regional?。Journal of International Money and Finance,18(4),603-617。  new window
8.Goldfajn, I.、Baig, T.(2002)。Monetary Policy in the Aftermath of Currency Crises: The Case of Asia。Review of International Economics,10(1),92-112。  new window
9.Kanas, A.(2002)。Is Exchange Rate Volatility Influence by Stock Return Volatility? Evidence from the US, the UK and Japan。Applied Economics Letters,9,501-503。  new window
10.Kenneth, L. S.(2002)。Government Bond Market Seasonality, Diversification, and Cointegration: International Evidence。The Journal of Financial Research,25(2),203-221。  new window
11.Forbes, Kristin J.、Rigobon, R.(2002)。No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements。Journal of Finance,57(5),2223-2261。  new window
12.Elyasiani, E.、Mansur, I.(1998)。Sensitivity of the Bank Stock Returns Distribution to Changes in the Level and Volatility of Interest Rate: A GARCH-M Model。Journal of Banking & Finance,22,535-563。  new window
13.Ng, Angela(2000)。Volatility Spillover Effects from Japan and the US to the Pacific-Basin。Journal of International Money and Finance,19(2),207-233。  new window
14.Engle, R. F.(1982)。Autoregressive Conditional Heteroske- dasticity with Estimates of the Variance of U.K. Inflation。Econometrica,50(4),987-1008。  new window
15.Engle, Robert F.(2002)。Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models。Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,20(3),339-350。  new window
16.Bollerslev, Tim(1987)。A Conditionally Heteroskedastic Time Series Model for Speculative Prices and Rates of Return。The Review of Economics and Statistics,69(3),542-547。  new window
17.胥愛琦、吳清豐(20030900)。臺灣股市報酬與匯率變動之波動性外溢效果--雙變量EGARCH模型的應用。臺灣金融財務季刊,4(3),87-103。new window  延伸查詢new window
18.王凱立、陳美玲(20030600)。亞洲金融風暴發生前後美國與臺灣股市動態關聯之進一步研究。經濟論文叢刊,31(2),191-252。new window  延伸查詢new window
19.Hamao, Y.、Masulis, R. W.、Ng, V.(1990)。Correlations in price changes and volatility across international stock markets。Review ofFinancial Studies,3,281-307。  new window
會議論文
1.王凱立、林卓民與王美智(2004)。美國與臺灣跨國債券市場交互動態關聯之研究。第五屆全國實証經濟學論文研討會。  延伸查詢new window
研究報告
1.Engle, R.、Sheppard, K.(2001)。Theoretical and Empirical properties of Dynamic Conditional Correlation Multivariate GARCH。San Diego:Department of Economics, University of California。  new window
2.Hunter, D. M.、Simon, D. P.(2003)。A Conditional Assessment of the Relationships between the Major World Bond Markets。University of South Florida。  new window
3.Khalid, A. M.、Rajaguru, G.(2007)。Financial Market Contagion: Evidence from the Asian Crisis Using A Multivariate GARCH Approach。Australia:Bond University。  new window
4.Eichengreen, B.、Rose, A. K.、Wyplosz, C.(1996)。Contagious Currency Crises。National Bureau of Economic Research。  new window
圖書
1.Krugman, Paul(1999)。The Return of Depression Economics。The Return of Depression Economics。New York, NY:W. W. Norton & Company。  new window
 
 
 
 
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