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題名：Manufacturing Intelligence for Hsinchu Science Park Semiconductor Sales Prediction
書刊名：工業工程學刊
作者：簡禎富／林國義
作者(外文)：Chien, Chen-fu／Lin, Kuo-yi
出版日期：2012
卷期：29:2
頁次：頁98-110
主題關鍵詞：製造智慧；新竹科學園區；半導體生態系統；預測；製造策略；Manufacturing intelligence；Hsinchu Science Park；HSP；Semiconductor ecosystem；Sales prediction；Manufacturing strategy
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
相關次數：
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(2) 博士論文(0) 專書(1) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:0
  • 共同引用共同引用:0
  • 點閱點閱:37
Hsinchu Science Park (HSP) is a high-tech cluster where semiconductor industry plays a decisive role in Taiwan’s economy as well as global supply chains. Semiconductor industry is capital intensive, in which capacity utilization significantly affects the capital effectiveness and profitability of semiconductor companies. Thus, demand forecasting provides critical input to support strategic decisions of capacity planning and the associated capital expenditure that require long lead-time. This study aims to predict the sales of semiconductor industry in HSP as a reference signal for supporting the decisions of individual companies and the government to maintain a healthy ecosystem. Empirical data of semiconductor industry in HSP from 1983 to 2010 was collected and analyzed. Furthermore, this study incorporated historical events to adjust the prediction. The results have shown practical viability of this research to support companies to improve the demand forecast as well as to make strategic decisions for semiconductor ecosystem as a whole.
期刊論文
1.Chang, S. C.、Lai, H. C.、Yu, H. C.(2005)。A variable P value rolling grey forecasting model for Taiwan semiconductor industry production。Technological Forecasting and Social Change，72(5)，623-640。  new window
2.Chen, C.I.、Hsin, P.H.、Wu, C.S.(2010)。Forecasting Taiwan’s major stock indices by the Nash nonlinear grey Bernoulli model。Expert Systems with Applications，37，7557-7562。  new window
3.Deng, Ju-Long(1982)。Control problem of grey system。Systems & Control Letters，1(5)，288-294。  new window
4.Hsu, Y. T.、Liu, M. C.、Yeh, J.、Hung, H. F.(2009)。Forecasting the turning time of stock market based on Markov–Fourier grey model。Expert Systems with Applications，36(4)，8597-8603。  new window
5.Hsu, L. C.、Wang, C. H.(2007)。Forecasting the output of integrated circuit industry using a grey model improved by the Bayesian analysis。Technological Forecasting and Social Change，74(6)，843-853。  new window
6.Hung, Kuo-chen、Chien, Chia-yi、Wu, Kuo-jung、Hsu, Fu-yuan(20090300)。Optimal Alpha Level Setting in GM(1,1) Model Based on Genetic Algorithm。Journal of Grey System，12(1)，23-31。  new window
7.Lin, C.T.、Lee, I.F.(2009)。Artificial intelligence diagnosis algorithm for expanding a precision expert forecasting system。Expert Systems and Applications，36，8385-8390。  new window
8.Lin, Y.W.、Yu, C.M.、Chien, C.F.(2011)。A linkage analysis of industry trend and macroeconomic leading indicators for small and medium-sized high-tech companies in Taiwan – an empirical study in LED industry。Journal for SME Development，22，127-152。  new window
9.Marmier, F.、Cheikhrouhou, N.(2011)。Structuring and integrating human knowledge in demand forecasting: a judgemental adjustment approach。Production Planning & Control，21，399-412。  new window
10.Sun, C.、Lin, G.(2009)。Hybrid grey forecasting model for Taiwan’s Hsinchu Science Industrial Park。Journal of Scientific & Industrial Research，68，354-360。  new window
11.Wang, C.、Hsu, L.(2008)。Using genetic algorithms grey theory to forecast high technology industrial output。Applied Mathematics and Computation，195，256-263。  new window
12.Wen, K.L.、Chang, T.C.(2005)。The research and development of completed GM (1, 1) model toolbox using Matlab。International Journal of Computational Cognition，3，41-47。  new window
13.Wen, J.C.、Huang, K.H.(2000)。The study of in GM (1, 1) model。Journal of the Chinese Institute of Engineers，23，583-589。  new window
14.Wu, Z.Y.(2010)。Forecasting stock indexes based on a revised grey model and the ARMA model。CAAI Transactions on Intelligent Systems，5，277-281。  new window
15.Moore, Gordon E.(1965)。Cramming more components onto integrated circuits。Electronics，38(8)，114-117。  new window
16.Lin, Y. H.、Lee, P. C.(2007)。Novel high-precision grey forecasting model。Automation in Construction，16(6)，771-777。  new window
17.Hsu, L. C.(2003)。Applying the Grey Prediction Model to the Global Integrated Circuit Industry。Technological Forecasting and Social Change，70(6)，563-574。  new window
18.Chien, C.-F.、Chen, Y.-J.、Peng, J.-T.(2010)。Manufacturing intelligence for semiconductor demand forecast based on technology diffusion and product life cycle。International Journal of Production Economics，128(2)，496-509。  new window
19.Lee, Hau L.、Padmanabhan, V.、Whang, Seungjin(1997)。The bullwhip effect in supply chains。Sloan Management Review，38(3)，93-102。  new window
20.Lin, C. T.、Yang, S. Y.(2003)。Forecast of the Output Value of Taiwan’s Opto-electronics Industry Using the Grey Forecasting Model。Technological Forecasting and Social Change，70(2)，177-186。  new window
21.Moore, J. F.(1993)。Predators and Prey: A New Ecology of Competition。Harvard Business Review，May-June，75-86。  new window
圖書
1.Chien, C.F.、Hsu, C.、Chang, K.(2011)。Overall Wafer Effectiveness (OWE): a novel industry standard for semiconductor ecosystem as a whole。Computers and Industrial Engineering。  new window
2.Chien, C.F.、Kuo, R.(2011)。Beyond make-or-buy: cross-company short-term capacity backup in semiconductor industry ecosystem。Flexible Services and Manufacturing Journal。  new window
3.Chien, C.F.、Zheng, J.N.(2011)。Mini–max regret strategy for robust capacity expansion decisions in semiconductor manufacturing。Journal of Intelligent Manufacturing。  new window
4.Chien, C.(2005)。Decision Analysis and Management。Taipei：Yeh-Yeh Book Gallery。  new window
5.Porter, Michael E.(1980)。Competitive Strategy: Techniques for Analyzing Industries and Competitors。Free Press。  new window
其他
1.Hsinchu Science Park Administration。Park Administration. Available，http://www.sipa.gov.tw/， 20120208。  new window
2.Taiwan Economic Journal，http://www.tej.com.tw/twsite/， 。  new window
 
 
 
 
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