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題名：碳捕獲封存技術與國家新能源政策之選擇價值評估
書刊名：臺灣能源期刊
作者：李堅明 引用關係／廖喜堂／葉鈞喬
作者(外文)：Lee, Chien-ming／Laiu, Ci-toung／Yeh, Chen-chio
出版日期：2014
卷期：1:3
頁次：頁349-366
主題關鍵詞：實質選擇價值；低碳能源科技；溫室氣體脫鉤；發電成本；Real option value；Low carbon energy technology；CO₂ decoupling；Electricity cost
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
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政府(2011)發佈新能源政策，確立國家逐步減核，邁向非核家園願景。然而，調降核能發電配比，將由何種能源(如煤炭、天然氣或再生能源)取代其發電缺口？不同替代能源，將影響發電成本及CO2減量目標等，是影響政府選擇替代方案的重要參考。本研究引入選擇價值方法(option value method)，並納入碳價不確定性因子，評估三種替代方案(分別為燃煤機組加裝CCS、燃氣機組及混合方案) 彌補減核之發電缺口的政策選擇價值。評估結果發現：(1)在2020年減核達總發電量6%後，即不宜再繼續擴大減核至12%；(2) 燃煤機組加裝CCS相較擴大天然氣機組更適宜作為減核之替代方案。
The New Energy Policy was announced in 2011, by the Taiwanese’s government. Under this new energy policy, the nuclear power share will be gradually phased out to approach unclear free country. However, what’s the best alternative energy to make up the electricity generation gap, for the nuclear power to be phased out? This is a key issue to launch the New Energy Policy in the future. This paper uses a real option pricing method to estimate the value of low carbon electric technologies, as well as carbon capture and storage (CCS), in the face of uncertain carbon prices. This is to make sure the new energy policy is the optimum for Taiwan. The real option value analysis shows that 6% nuclear power share reduction is the highest option value by 2020. Furthermore, expanding the nuclear power share reduction by 12% is unsatisfactory result. In addition, the coal power plan is a better alternative one than natural gas power plan with CCS. This is because of the impact of lower electricity prices and an almost indifferent environmental benefit.
期刊論文
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3.Ansar, J.、Sparks, R.(2009)。Experience Curve, Option Value, and the Energy Paradox。Energy Policy，37(3)，1012-1020。  new window
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5.Colpier, C. U.、Cornland, D.(2002)。The Economics of the Combined Cycle Gas Turbine-an Experience Curve Analysis。Energy Policy，30，309-316。  new window
6.Davis, G. A.、Owens, B.(2003)。Optimizing the level of renewable electric R&D expenditures using real options analysis。Energy Policy，31(15)，1589-1608。  new window
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8.Fuss, S.、Szolgayova, J.(2009)。Fuel Price and Technological Uncertainty in a Real Options Model for Electricity Planning。Applied Energy，87，2938-2944。  new window
9.Fuss, S.、Johansson, D.、Szolgayova, J.、Obersteiner, M.(2009)。Impact of Climate Policy Uncertainty on the Adoption of Electricity Generating Technologies。Energy Policy，37，733-743。  new window
10.Kjarland, F.(2007)。A Real Option Analysis of Investments in Hydropower-The Case of Norway。Energy Policy，35(11)，5901-5908。  new window
11.Laurikka, H.(2006)。Option Value of Gasification Technology within an Emission Trading Scheme。Energy Policy，34，3916-3928。  new window
12.Lin, T.、Ko, C. C.、Yeh, H. N.(2007)。Applying Real Options in Investment Decisions Relating to Environmental Pollution。Energy Policy，35(4)，2426-2432。  new window
13.Lohwasser R.、Madlener R.(2011)。Economics of CCS for Coal Plants: Impact of Investment Costs and Efficiency on Market Diffusion in Europe。Energy Economics，34(3)，850-863。  new window
14.Luis, M. A.、Chamorro, J. M.(2008)。European CO2 Prices and Carbon Capture Investments。Energy Economics，30，2992-3015。  new window
15.Neij, Lena(1999)。Cost dynamics of wind power。Energy，24(5)，375-389。  new window
16.Openheimer,, M.、Petsonk, A.(2005)。Article 2 of the UNFCCC: Historical Origins, Recent Interpretations。Climatic Change，73(3)，195-226。  new window
17.Siddiqui, A.、Felten, S. E.(2010)。How to Proceed with Competing Alternative Technologies: A Real Option Analysis。Energy Economics，32(4)，817-830。  new window
18.Szolgayova, J.、Fuss, S.、Obersteiner, M.(2008)。Assessing the Effects of CO2 Price Caps on Electricity Investments: A Real Options Analysis。Energy Policy，36，3974-3981。  new window
19.Uddin, S.、Barreto, L.(2007)。Biomass-Fired Cogeneration Systems with CO2 Capture and Storage。Renewable Energy，32(6)，1006-1019。  new window
20.Dickey, David A.、Fuller, Wayne A.(1981)。Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root。Econometrica: journal of the Econometric Society，49(4)，1057-1072。  new window
21.Engle, Robert F.、Granger, Clive W. J.(1987)。Cointegration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing。Econometrica，55(2)，251-276。  new window
22.Granger, Clive William John、Newbold, Paul(1974)。Spurious Regressions in Econometrics。Journal of econometrics，2(2)，111-120。  new window
會議論文
1.李堅明、劉恆齊(2010)。應用實質選擇權理論評估台灣綠色能源發展目標之政策選擇。中華民國能源經濟學會99年年會暨能源經濟學術研討會。台北市：中華經濟研究院。  延伸查詢new window
研究報告
1.李堅明、林達榮(2009)。「低碳與無碳能源科技政策之選擇價值評估」期末報告。  延伸查詢new window
2.經濟部能源局(2010)。能源統計表。經濟部能源局。  延伸查詢new window
3.Harmon, C.(2000)。Experience Curves of Photovoltaic Technology。International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis。  new window
圖書
1.Copeland, T.、Antikarov, V.(2001)。Real Options: A Practitioner's Guide。New York, NY：TECERE LLC, Inc.。  new window
2.Capoor, K.、Ambrosi, P.(2009)。State and trends of the carbon market 2009。Washington, D. C.：World Bank Institute。  new window
3.IEA(2000)。Experience Curves for Energy Technology Policy。OECD/IEA。  new window
4.IEA(2012)。A Policy Strategy For Carbon Capture and Storage。  new window
其他
1.European Technology Platform for Zero Emission Fossil Fuel Power Plants(2011)。The Costs of CO2 Capture, Transport and Storage，https://www.globalccsinstitute.com/publications/costs-co2-capture-transport-and-storage。  new window
 
 
 
 
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