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題名:Does Population Aging Affect Real Housing Prices? Evidence from Eight Asian Economies
書刊名:住宅學報
作者:盧秋玲沈仰斌施正倫
作者(外文):Lu, ChiulingShen, Yang-pinShih, Cheng-lun
出版日期:2018
卷期:27:1
頁次:頁1-21
主題關鍵詞:房價人口老化撫養比例亞洲經濟體Housing pricesPopulation agingOld dependency ratioAsian economies
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(1) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:1
  • 共同引用共同引用:0
  • 點閱點閱:1
我們檢視了八個亞洲經濟體中人口老化對房價的影響。鑑於大多數亞洲經濟體都比已開發國家經濟體年輕,我們預計他們的人口老化對實際房價的負面影響應該相對較小。然而,我們的研究結果顯示負面影響幅度卻很大。根據Takats(2012)的估算,已開發國家人口老化將導致實際房屋價格在2035年之前每年下降約80個基本點,但是平均而言,亞洲經濟體的下降幅度卻高達每年134個基本點。另外,我們結果進一步發現,在經濟自由度較大的地區,如香港、新加坡、台灣和南韓,其下跌幅度將遠低於樣本中的其他地區。
We examine the effect of an aging population on housing prices in eight Asian economies. Given that most Asian economies are younger than advanced economies, we expected their demography to have a comparatively small negative effect on real housing prices. Our findings, however, show that the negative effect is large. On average, total population and population aging will cause real housing price returns to decrease by approximately 134 basis points per annum until 2035, compared to 80 basis points in advanced economies until 2050, as estimated by Takats (2012). The results further show that in regions with greater economic freedom, such as Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, and South Korea, the downward influence will be less than that in regions with less economic freedom.
期刊論文
1.Égert, Balázs、Mihaljek, Dubravko(2007)。Determinants of house prices in central and Eastern Europe。Comparative economic studies,49(3),367-388。  new window
2.Ang, A.、Maddaloni, A.(2005)。Do Demographic Changes Affect Risk Premiums? Evidence from International Data。Journal of Business,78(1),341-380。  new window
3.Bakshi, G. S.、Chen, Z.(1994)。Baby Boom, Population Aging, and Capital Markets。Journal of Business,67(2),165-202。  new window
4.Engelhardt, G.、Poterba, J.(1991)。House Prices and Demographic Change: Canadian Evidence。Regional Science and Urban Economics,21(4),539-546。  new window
5.Erb, C.、Harvey, C.、Viskanta, T.(1997)。Demographics and International Investments。Financial Analysts Journal,53(4),14-28。  new window
6.Hamilton, B.(1991)。The Baby Boom, the Baby Bust, and the Housing Market a Second Look。Regional Science and Urban Economics,21(4),547-552。  new window
7.Hendershott, P.(1991)。Are Real House Prices Likely to Decline by 47 Percent?。Regional Science and Urban Economics,21(4),553-563。  new window
8.Holland, S.(1991)。The Baby Boom and the Housing Market: Another Look at the Evidence。Regional Science and Urban Economics,21(4),565-571。  new window
9.Mankiw, G.、Weil, D.(1989)。The Baby Boom, the Baby Bust, and the Housing Market。Regional Science and Urban Economics,19(2),235-258。  new window
10.Poterba, J.(2001)。Demographic Structure and Asset Returns。Review of Economics and Statistics,83(4),565-584。  new window
11.Swan, C.(1995)。Demography and the Demand for Housing A Reinterpretation of the Mankiw-Weil Demand Variable。Regional Science and Urban Economics,25(1),41-58。  new window
12.Takats, E.(2012)。Aging and House Prices。Journal of Housing Economics,21(2),131-141。  new window
13.Tillmann, P.(2013)。Capital Inflows and Asset Prices: Evidence from Emerging Asia。Journal of Banking and Finance,37(3),717-729。  new window
14.Zhu, H.(2006)。The Structure of Housing Finance Markets and House Prices in Asia。BIS Quarterly Review,2006(Dec.),55-69。  new window
15.Levin, Andrew、Lin, Chien-Fu、Chu, Chia-Shang James(2002)。Unit Root Tests in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finite-Sample Properties。Journal of Econometrics,108(1),1-24。  new window
16.Glindro, Eloisa T.、Subhanij, Tlentip、Szeto, Jessica、Zhud, Haibin(2011)。Determinants of House Prices in Nine Asia-Pacific Economies。International Journal of Central Banking,7(3),163-204。  new window
17.Im, Kyung So、Pesaran, M. Hashem、Shin, Yongcheol(2003)。Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels。Journal of Econometrics,115(1),53-74。  new window
18.Ando, Albert、Modigliani, Franco(1963)。The 'Life Cycle' Hypothesis of Saving: Aggregate Implications and Tests。American Economic Review,53(1),55-84。  new window
研究報告
1.Ciarlone, A.(2012)。House Price Cycles in Emerging Economies。Bank of Italy。  new window
2.Davis, P.、Li, C.(2003)。Demographics and Financial Asset Prices in the Major Industrial Economies。Brunel University。  new window
3.Igan, Deniz、Loungani, Prakash(2012)。Global Housing Cycles。International Monetary Fund。  new window
4.Nguyen, H.(2012)。Population Aging and the Effects on Real Estate and Financial Asset Returns。School of International Business, Brandeis University。  new window
5.Takats, E.(2010)。Ageing and Asset Prices。Bank for International Settlements。  new window
圖書
1.Kennedy, P.(2003)。A Guide to Econometrics。Cambridge, MA:MIT Press。  new window
2.Stock, J.、Watson, M.(2007)。Introduction to Econometrics。Boston:Pearson Addison-Wesley。  new window
其他
1.Bank for International Settlements(2013)。Property Price Statistics Database,http://www.bis.org/statistics/pp.htm。  new window
2.United Nations World Population Prospectus(2011)。Aging in the Twenty-First Century: A Celebration and a Challenge,http://esa.un.org/wpp/。  new window
圖書論文
1.Modigliani, F.、Brumberg, R.(1954)。Utility Analysis and the Consumption Function: An Interpretation of Cross-Section Data。Post-Keynesian Economics。London:Allen and Unwin。  new window
 
 
 
 
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