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題名:配對交易與機器學習在臺灣股票市場之應用
書刊名:統計與資訊評論
作者:徐瑀暄林士貴 引用關係蔡瑞煌林朝陽
作者(外文):Hsu, Yu-hsuanLin, Shih-kueiTsai, Rua-huanLin, Chao-yang
出版日期:2019
卷期:19
頁次:頁1-37
主題關鍵詞:共整合配對交易布林通道類神經網路投資組合CointegrationPairs tradingBollinger bandNeural networkPortfolio
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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本研究根據統計套利的配對交易方法對台灣股票市場進行實證研究,其模型為二階段共整合檢定。將上述模型檢定台灣股票,找出具共整合性質之股票配對,利用技術指標-布林通道找出價格異常的時間點進行交易,建構配對交易投資組合;本研究進一步將類神經網路模型加入,用於預測共整合殘差走勢,建構類神經網路結合布林通道之配對交易策略並建構投資組合。實證結果顯示市場上確實存在市場中立性的報酬,且兩個策略的投資組合皆有優於大盤的績效和穩健性;此外,類神經網路確實可以減少進場次數提高勝率,並且使投資組合的最大虧損下降,但也因此降低了投資組合的總報酬。
This study conducts empirical research on the Taiwan stock market based on the statistical arbitrage pairing transaction method. The model is a two-stage cointegration test. The above model is used to verify Taiwan stocks, to find stocks with a common integration nature, to use the technical indicators - Bollinger Bands to find out the time points of price anomalies to conduct transactions, and to construct a matching trading portfolio; this study further adds a neural network model. It is used to predict the trend of cointegration residuals, construct a paired trading strategy based on the neural network and the Bollinger Band, and construct a portfolio. The empirical results show that there is indeed market neutrality in the market, and the investment portfolio of both strategies has better performance and robustness than the broader market; in addition, the neural network can indeed reduce the number of entries to improve the winning rate and make the portfolio The biggest loss has fallen, but it has also reduced the total compensation for the portfolio.
期刊論文
1.Kara, Y.、Boyacioglu, M. A.、Baykan, Ö. K.(2011)。Predicting direction of stock price index movement using artificial neural networks and support vector machines: The sample of the Istanbul stock exchange。Expert Systems with Applications,38(5),5311-5319。  new window
2.Johansen, Søren、Juselius, Katarina(1990)。Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration: with Applications to the Demand for Money。Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,52(2),169-210。  new window
3.Engle, Robert F.、Granger, Clive W. J.(1987)。Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing。Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society,55(2),251-276。  new window
4.McCulloch, W. S.、Pitts, W.(1943)。A Logical Calculus of the Ideas Immanent in Nervous Activity。Bulletin of Mathematical Biophysics,5(4),115-133。  new window
5.Bollinger, J.(1992)。Using Bollinger Bands。Stocks & Commodities,10(2),47-51。  new window
6.Chen, W. H.、Shih, J. Y.、Wu, S.(2006)。Comparison of support-vector machines and back propagation neural networks in forecasting the six major Asian stock markets。International Journal of Electronic Finance,1(1),49-67。  new window
7.Dickey, David A.、Fuller, Wayne A.(1979)。Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series With a Unit Root。Journal of the American Statistical Association,74(366),427-431。  new window
8.Granger, Clive William John、Newbold, Paul(1974)。Spurious Regressions in Econometrics。Journal of econometrics,2(2),111-120。  new window
9.Said, S. E.、Dickey, David A.(1984)。Testing for Unit Roots in Autoregressive-Moving Average Models of Unknown Order。Biometrika,71(3),599-607。  new window
10.Avellaneda, Marco、Lee, Jeong-Hyun(2010)。Statistical Arbitrage in the US Equities Market。Quantitative Finance,10(7),761-782。  new window
研究報告
1.Gatev, E.、Goetzmann, W.、Rouwenhorst, K.(1999)。Pairs trading: performance of a relative value Arbitrage rule。National Bureau of Economic Research。  new window
2.Madhavaram, G. R.(2013)。Statistical arbitrage using pairs trading with support vector machine learning。Saint Mary's University。  new window
學位論文
1.羅君昱(2006)。台灣股票市場執行統計套利之可行性分析(碩士論文)。國立政治大學,台北。  延伸查詢new window
2.陳岱佑(2013)。台灣指數期貨與ETF價差交易之研究--以台股期貨、電子期貨、金融期貨與台灣50ETF為例(碩士論文)。國立交通大學。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Vidyamurthy, Ganapathy(2004)。Pairs Trading: Quantitative Methods and Analysis。John Wiley & Sons, Inc.。  new window
圖書論文
1.Rumelhart, D. E.、Smolensky, P.、McClelland, J. L.、Hinton, G. E.(1986)。Schemata and sequential thought processes in PDP models。Parallel distributed processing: Explorations in the microstructure of cognition。Cambridge, MA:The MIT Press/Bradford Books。  new window
 
 
 
 
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