:::

詳目顯示

回上一頁
題名:臺灣金融情勢與經濟預測
書刊名:經濟論文叢刊
作者:張天惠朱浩榜
作者(外文):Chang, Tien-hueiChu, Hao-pang
出版日期:2020
卷期:48:1
頁次:頁77-106
主題關鍵詞:金融情勢指數信用資產價格經濟下行風險Financial conditions indexCreditAsset priceDownside risks
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
相關次數:
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(0) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:0
  • 共同引用共同引用:22
  • 點閱點閱:2
全球金融危機證實,過度且持續的信用創造及資產價格泡沫爲觸發金融危機的重要因素。近來研究發現,評估金融情勢不僅有助預測未來總體經濟走勢,尚有助判定未來經濟下行風險。爰此,本文採用大量金融變數,並納入房地產市場與銀行信用等資訊,再以Doz, Giannone, and Reichlin(2011)兩階段動態因子模型,建構我國之金融情勢指數(financial conditions index, FCI)。實證結果顯示,FCI顯著領先實質面的經濟變數,且可提供有助經濟預測的額外資訊。當未來經濟成長的下行風險越高,FCI的領先性質將更形明顯;FCI對於經濟活動陷入衰退之預測能力表現佳,且納入房地產與信用變數之FCI表現可能更勝一籌。
In this paper, we develop Taiwan's financial conditions index (FCI) using a wide range of financial indicators, especially encompassing real estate and credit data in order to study the relationship of financial conditions and economic forecasting. We employ the two-step dynamic factor model of Doz, Giannone, and Reichlin (2011) which makes estimation more accurate and efficient. The results indicate FCI not only performs better as a leading indicator of real economic variables, but also provides additional information for forecasting economic activity. Furthermore, the higher the future economic downside risks, the better the FCI serves as a leading indicator. FCI (specifically incorporating information on real estate and credit variables) appears to signal downside risks to economic growth well.
期刊論文
1.Reinhart, Carmen M.、Rogoff, Kenneth S.(2011)。From financial crash to debt crisis。American Economic Review,101(5),1676-1706。  new window
2.徐千婷(20080900)。我國金融情勢指數之實證研究。中央銀行季刊,30(3),5-48。new window  延伸查詢new window
3.Mian, Atif R.、Sufi, Amir(2009)。The Consequences of Mortgage Credit Expansion: Evidence from the U.S. Mortgage Default Crisis。Quarterly Journal of Economics,124(4),1449-1496。  new window
4.管中閔、徐之強、黃裕烈、徐士勛(20140300)。臺灣金融情勢指數與總體經濟關係。臺灣經濟預測與政策,44(2),103-132。new window  延伸查詢new window
5.Chow, Gregory C.、Lin, An-loh(1971)。Best linear unbiased interpolation, distribution, and extrapolation of time series by related series。The Review of Economics and Statistics,53(4),372-375。  new window
6.Lo Duca, Marco、Peltonen, Tuomas A.(2013)。Assessing systemic Risks and predicting systemic events。Journal of Banking & Finance,37(7),2183-2195。  new window
7.Hubrich, Kirstin、Tetlow, Robert J.(2015)。Financial stress and economic dynamics: The transmission of crises。Journal of Monetary Economics,70,100-115。  new window
8.徐志宏、周大森(20100400)。近期臺灣景氣循環峰谷之認定。經濟研究,10,1-33。new window  延伸查詢new window
9.Chiao, Chaoshin、Cheng, David C.、Shao, Yunju(2006)。The informative content of the net-buy information of institutional investors in the Taiwan stock market: a revisit using conditional analysis。Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies,9(4),661-697。  new window
10.Richards, Anthony(2005)。Big fish in small ponds: The trading behavior and price impact of foreign investors in Asian emerging equity markets。Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis,40(1),1-27。  new window
11.Doz, Catherine、Giannone, Domenico、Reichlin, Lucrezia(2011)。A Two-step Estimator for Large Approximate Dynamic Factor Models Based on Kalman Filtering。Journal of Econometrics,164(1),188-205。  new window
12.Aramonte, Sirio、Rosen, Samuel、Schindler, John W.(2017)。Assessing and Combining Financial Conditions Indexes。International Journal of Central Banking,13(1),1-52。  new window
13.Brave, Scott A.、Butters, R. Andrew(2011)。Monitoring Financial Stability: A Financial Conditions Index Approach。Economic Perspectives,35(1),22-43。  new window
14.Brave, Scott A.、Butters, R. Andrew(2012)。Diagnosing the Financial System: Financial Conditions and Financial Stress。International Journal of Central Banking,8(2),191-239。  new window
15.Claessens, Stijn、Kose, M. Ayhan、Terrones, Marco E.(2012)。How Do Business and Financial Cycles Interact?。Journal of International Economics,87(1),178-190。  new window
16.Erdem, Magdalena、Tsatsaronis, Kostas(2013)。Financial Conditions and Economic Activity: a Statistical Approach。BIS Quarterly Review,2013(Mar.),37-52。  new window
17.Koop, Gary、Korobilis, Dimitris(2014)。A New Index of Financial Conditions。European Economic Review,71,101-116。  new window
18.Matheson, Troy D.(2012)。Financial Conditions Indexes for the United States and Euro Area。Economics Letters,115(3),441-446。  new window
19.Koenker, Roger W.、Bassett, Gilbert W. Jr.(1978)。Regression Quantiles。Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society,46(1),33-50。  new window
20.Clark, Todd E.、West, Kenneth D.(2007)。Approximately Normal Tests for Equal Predictive Accuracy in Nested Models。Journal of Econometrics,138(1),291-311。  new window
21.Firpo, Sergio、Fortin, Nicole M.、Lemieux, Thomas(2009)。Unconditional quantile regressions。Econometrica,77(3),953-973。  new window
22.張天惠(20120600)。我國金融情勢指數與總體經濟預測。中央銀行季刊,34(2),11-41。new window  延伸查詢new window
23.Bai, Jushan、Ng, Serena(2004)。A Panic Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration。Econometrica,72(4),1127-1177。  new window
24.Forni, Mario、Hallin, Marc、Lippi, Marco、Reichlin, Lucrezia(2005)。The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: One-Sided Estimation and Forecasting。Journal of the American Statistical Association,100(471),830-840。  new window
會議論文
1.Dudley, William C.(2010)。Comments on Financial Conditions Indexes: A New Look after the Financial Crisis。The University of Chicago Booth School of Business Annual U. S. Monetary Policy Forum,(會議日期: February 26, 2010)。New York City。  new window
2.Goodhart, Charles、Hofmann, Boris(2001)。Asset Prices, Financial Conditions, and the Transmission of Monetary Policy。The conference on Asset Prices, Exchange rates, and Monetary Policy,(會議日期: 2001/03/02-03/03)。Stanford University。  new window
研究報告
1.臺大--國泰產學合作計畫(2011)。臺灣經濟與金融情勢指數(FCI)編製與應用。  延伸查詢new window
2.Gauthier, Céline、Graham, Christopher、Liu, Ying(2004)。Financial Conditions Indexes for Canada。Bank of Canada。  new window
3.Swiston, Andrew J.(2008)。A U.S. Financial Conditions Index: Putting Credit Where Credit Is Due。  new window
4.Osorio, Carolina、Pongsaparn, Runchana、Unsal, D. Filiz(2011)。A Quantitative Assessment of Financial Conditions in Asia。  new window
5.Angelopoulou, Eleni、Balfoussia, Hiona、Gibson, Heather(2013)。Building a Financial Conditions Index for the Euro Area and Selected Euro Area Countries: What Does it Tell us About the Crisis?。  new window
6.Brave, Scott A.、Butters, R. Andrew(2010)。Gathering Insights on the Forest from the Trees: A New Metric for Financial Conditions。  new window
7.Solberger, Martin、Spånberg, Erik(2017)。Estimating a Dynamic Factor Model in EViews Using the Kalman Filter and Smoother。  new window
8.Wacker, Konstantin M.、Lodge, David、Nicoletti, Giulio(2014)。Measuring Financial Conditions in Major Non-Euro Area Economies。  new window
9.Kapetanios, George、Price, Simon、Young, Garry(2017)。A UK Financial Conditions Index Using Targeted Data Reduction: Forecasting and Structural Identification。  new window
10.Guichard, Stéphanie、Turner, David(2008)。Quantifying the effect of financial conditions on US activity。  new window
11.Hatzius, Jan、Hooper, Peter、Mishkin, Frederic S.、Schoenholtz, Kermit L.、Watson, Mark W.(2010)。Financial Conditions Index: A Fresh Look after the Financial Crisis。  new window
12.Mayes, David G.、Virén, Matti(2001)。Financial Conditions Indexes。  new window
圖書
1.Hosmer, David W.、Lemeshow, Stanley(2000)。Applied Logistic Regression。John Wiley & Sons, Inc.。  new window
2.Vonen, Nikka Husom(2011)。A financial conditions index for Norway。Norges Bank。  new window
其他
1.Adrian, Tobias,Boyarchenko, Nina,Giannone, Domenico(2016)。Vulnerable Growth,London:Centre for Economic Policy Research。  new window
2.Beaton, Kimberly,Lalonde, René,Luu, Corinne(2009)。A Financial Conditions Index for the United States。  new window
圖書論文
1.International Monetary Fund(2017)。Are Countries Losing Control of Domestic Financial Conditions?。Global Financial Stability Report, April 2017。Washington, DC:International Monetary Fund。  new window
2.International Monetary Fund(2017)。Financial Conditions and Growth at Risk。Global Financial Stability Report October 2017: Is Growth at Risk?。Washington, DC:International Monetary Fund。  new window
3.Lack, Caesar P.(2003)。A financial conditions index for Switzerland。Monetary Policy in a Changing Environment。Basel:Bank for International Settlements。  new window
 
 
 
 
第一頁 上一頁 下一頁 最後一頁 top
:::
無相關書籍
 
無相關著作
 
QR Code
QRCODE