:::

詳目顯示

回上一頁
題名:臺灣地區結婚率、出生率、人口成長率的時間數列模式探討
書刊名:人口學刊
作者:吳柏林廖敏治
作者(外文):Wu, BerlinLiaw, Miin-Chih
出版日期:1991
卷期:14
頁次:頁109-132
主題關鍵詞:結婚率出生率人口成長率時間數列模式臺灣
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
相關次數:
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(3) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:3
  • 共同引用共同引用:0
  • 點閱點閱:34
Due to the rapid growth of population in Taiwan, the study of demography has always been the interest of the sociologist. Moreover, the three dynamics of indexes of population growth, birth and marriage rates have an apparent interdependent relationship, and they play an important role in the study of demography. In this paper, we will focus on these three indexes and explore in terms of the time series model. Furthrmore, the comparison and analysis will be made utilizing univariate ARIMA model, transfer function model and multivariate ARIMA model accordingly. The seasonal factor will also be considered. Lastly, the prediction will be made on the short term growth rate of these three indexes, and we will also estimate the monthly sum of population of the next two years in Taiwan.
期刊論文
1.Cohen, A.(1983)。Seasonal daily effect on the number of births in Israel。Applied Statistics,32,228-235。  new window
2.Choi, K.、Thacker, S. B.(1981)。An Evaluation of Influenza Mortality Surveillance。American Journal of Epidemiology,13,215-235。  new window
3.Haines, L.、Munoz, W.、Van Gelderen, C.(1989)。ARIMA Modelling of Birth Data。Journal of Applied Statistics,16,55-57。  new window
4.Helfenstein, U.(1986)。Box-Jenkins Modelling of Some Viral Infectious Diseases。Statistics in Medicine,5,37-47。  new window
5.Karlberg, J.(1987)。On the Modelling of Human Growth。Statistics in Medicine,6,185-192。  new window
6.Tiao, G. C.、Box, G. E. P.(1981)。Modeling Multiple Time Series with Applications。Journal of the American Statistical Association,76(376),802-816。  new window
7.Akaike, Hirotsugu(1974)。A new look at the statistical model identification。IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control,19(6),716-723。  new window
會議論文
1.王德睦(1990)。臺灣地區未來人口成長之若干可能。臺北:中國人口學會。49-68。  延伸查詢new window
研究報告
1.行政院主計處(1971)。中華民國統計月報。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.蔡宏進、廖正宏(1987)。人口學。臺北:巨流圖書股份有限公司。  延伸查詢new window
2.內政部人口政策委員會(1989)。人口資料彙集。  延伸查詢new window
3.范子華(1990)。人口統計。臺北:宏星文具印刷有限公司。  延伸查詢new window
4.蔡宏進(1990)。臺灣地區人口成長推計與未來人口政策推行之展望。臺北:巨流圖書公司。  延伸查詢new window
5.Pollard, A. H.、Yusuf, Farhat、Pollard, G. H.(1981)。Demographic Techniques。  new window
6.Box, George E. P.、Jenkins, Gwilym M.(1976)。Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control。San Francisco, CA:Holden-Day。  new window
7.Wei, William W. S.(1990)。Time series analysis: Univariate and multivariate methods。Addison-Wesley Inc.。  new window
 
 
 
 
第一頁 上一頁 下一頁 最後一頁 top
QR Code
QRCODE