利用聯合國和國際勞工組織相關數據分析發現,人口負增長存在明顯的年齡(組)傳導過程,大多數國家(地區)遵循0～14歲人口負增長—15～59歲人口負增長—總人口負增長的發展軌跡。人口負增長與勞動力供給、勞動參與率、失業率等指標的關系表現出漸行漸遠的特征。中國勞動年齡人口和勞動力已經開始負增長,根據預測,中國總人口將在2027～2029年期間進入負增長。負增長階段中國有望保持勞動力緩慢下降,但仍會出現周期性失業和結構性失業問題。建議消除生育障礙,提高生育水平;延遲退休年齡,提高勞動參與率,挖掘勞動力供給潛力;把握好經濟結構轉型節奏及應對結構轉型的就業沖擊;大力發展教育和培訓以提高勞動者素質和促進勞動參與。

Based on the data of the United Nations and the International Labor Organization, this article explores the relationship between negative population growth and labor force participation. There is a significant age(group) transmission process of negative population growth. Most countries and regions follow the development track of negative growth from population aged 0-14 to population aged 15-59, and then to total population. The relationship between negative population growth and labor force, labor force participation rate, and unemployment rate tends to be more detached. The negative growth of population aged 15-59 and labor force in China has already begun. The total population of China will step into the negative growth stage between 2027 and 2029, in which a slow decline in labor force is expected, but there will still be problems such as cyclical unemployment and structural unemployment. The article concludes with discussion on policy implications regarding raising fertility, delaying retirement age, grasping the rhythm of economic structural transformation and its employment shock, and enhancing quality of laborers and promoting the labor force participation.