統籌推進疫情防控和經濟社會發展工作是常態化疫情防控階段促進中國經濟恢復的必然選擇。基于百度地圖遷徙大數據,采用雙重差分模型探究不同階段的疫情防控措施對中國人口流動的影響。結果表明,早期的疫情超常規防控措施有效控制了人口流動,導致中國城市平均人口遷出、遷入強度和城市內部出行強度分別降低了71.21%、72.62%和45.99%,且武漢市的下降幅度尤為顯著。在實行差異化防控策略推進復工復產后,全國人口流動開始反彈,城市間人口流動增長了1倍以上,且城市內部出行強度基本恢復到2019年農歷同期水平。此外,疫情風險級別是影響中國當前人口流動恢復的重要因素。因此,在常態化疫情防控階段,需采取差異化的策略實施精準防控,積極為推動經濟恢復創造有利條件。

China’s economic recovery relies on the coordination between the pandemic control and socioeconomic development. Based on the Baidu migration big data, this study employs difference-in-difference model to explore the impacts of pandemic prevention and control measures on the population flow at different stages. The results show that the unconventional measures proposed in the early stage have effectively controlled the population flow, with the average intensity of urban population inflow, outflow and intra-city flow reduced by 71.21%, 72.62%, and 45.99% respectively. After the resumption of work and production, the population flow began to rebound, with the inter-city flow more than doubled. The pandemic risk level is a vital factor affecting the resumption of population flow in China. Therefore, differentiated accurate prevention and control measures should be adopted to create favorable conditions for promoting economic development in the era of regular pandemic prevention and control.