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題名:以系統動力學探討競爭性技術主流突現之動態過程
作者:羅世輝 引用關係
作者(外文):Shih Hui Lo
校院名稱:國立中山大學
系所名稱:企業管理學系
指導教授:楊碩英
學位類別:博士
出版日期:1999
主題關鍵詞:系統動力學科技管理網路經濟學創新擴散主流突現報酬遞增網路外部性system dynamicstechnology managementeconomics of networkdiffusion of innovationthe emergence of dominanceincreasing returnsnetwork externalities
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  科技管理的相關文獻認為創新技術的演化過程裡,「主流的突現」是影響產業變遷極關鍵的事件,甚至可視為演化過程的重要里程碑。而研究也認為,創新的發展能否成為主流,與技術本身優劣性之間的關係並不大,其過程猶如黑箱一般而難以捉摸,其中實包含許多複雜的技術與非技術性因素之間的互動。然而從個體經濟的角度來看,創新的擴散現象乃演化的核心過程,因此擴散的成功與否也往往決定了該創新能否讓大眾市場接受成為產業標準或僅是曇花一現。而擴散研究的一個重要脈絡,乃依創新採用者其採用時間先後來區別的「採用者擴散模式」或類似的「傳染病模式」,此模式可將演化過程中典型S曲線的成長形態以巨觀的方式呈現出來。另一重要脈絡,則為針對競爭性技術所造成需求面與供給面的擴散之網路效應的研究,並衍伸出網路經濟學的相關探討。
網路經濟學領域的研究發現,創新技術可因網路外部性進而產生報酬遞增現象;亦即技術(或產品)採用者的數量與其價值形成一自我增強的正回饋效應。因此,技術的競爭演化,可因過程中偶發的歷史事件或先進優勢的影響,再藉由網路外部性產生報酬遞增,使市場鎖定該技術成為主流。然而,許多研究進一步探討發現其先決條件,乃該技術採用者必須超越其他技術採用者達到所謂的「臨界量」或門檻,因而衍伸出重要的策略意涵,即競爭性技術初期若能快速累積顧客基礎並越過臨界量,則能產生富者愈富的現象,反之則貧者愈貧。
而藉由產業歷史個案的觀察;柯提(QWERTY)式鍵盤,因具先進優勢而形成市場標準。錄放影機市場,Beta規格的技術廠商藉由低價、聯盟等策略,而擊敗較早發展的VHS規格技術。個人電腦發展初期,IBM靠著開放架構等策略,超越較早進入市場且技術較優的Apple電腦。及近年發生在網路瀏覽器市場的競爭,看到Nescape企圖以大手筆(四千萬套)的贈送策略,快速累積顧客基礎進而鎖定市場,卻仍不敵Microsoft藉由其他優勢的後來居上。這些案例也說明了主流突現對產業及廠商本身發展的重要影響,以及這些競爭性技術在擴散過程中受到網路經濟相關研究所探討的重要特性之影響。也突顯了競爭性技術能否成為市場主流,無法單純由技術本身優劣或進入市場先後來決定。甚至,快速累積顧客基礎跨越臨界量的策略建議,也使我們無所適從。
因此,本研究綜合上述理論的探討回顧,利用擅長處理動態複雜系統且以回饋控制理論為基礎的「系統動力學」做為研究方法及工具,並以相關的擴散研究為理論基礎,進而建立一動態模型,重新檢視具網路經濟特性的競爭性技術其主流突現的動態過程。透過模式分析可以發現;
(一)臨界量觀點的不足;臨界量往往成為後見之明,原本市場領先的技術,會因另一競爭技術之吸引力強弱而改變臨界量。
(二)吸引環產生的擴散現象是技術能否成為主流的重要影響因素;尤其藉由供給與需求面形成多重回饋環時,使得主流突現的過程益顯複雜。
(三)靜態臨界量與動態吸引環的差異;快速累積顧客基礎,以跨越臨界量的靜態觀點,不同於強調吸引環的動態觀點。後者為廠商較根本且持久的競爭優勢。
(四)當技術彼此的吸引環互動時,進而衍伸出相對臨界量的觀念。
(五)關鍵性相對吸引環;當兩方技術存在不同強弱的吸引環時,考量關鍵性吸引環變顯得格外重要。
此外,模式中亦說明及分析不同情境下,因回饋環強度建立的策略應用及影響,同時提出塑造吸引環的重要性。最後,並針對後續進一步研究的發展方向提出建議及說明。
Literatures in technology characterize the dominance as the key event in the evolution of an innovation in industrial change. However, the emergence of dominance has been typically viewed as a black box process involving sophisticated interaction of technological and non-technological factors.
From microeconomic perspective, diffusion is at the core of the process of evolving. The strength and speed of diffusion influence the emergence of dominance among competing technologies. Bass'' diffusion model of adoption, derived from the epidemical metaphor, considered the influence among adopters and potential adopters, had a critical contribution to this perspective.
This research built a system dynamics model, which first considered Bass'' heterogeneity of adoption dynamics, and then further considered the strategic interaction and effect of the network externality. The strategic interaction emphasizes the interdependence of decisions between competitiors. The network externality exists when a potential adopter''s valuation of a product increases as a function of its adoption by other adopters. Based on the core diffusion process with the integration of adoption dynamics, the strategic interaction and the network externality, expected to build a more dynamic and comprehensive model to have better insight of the evolution process so as to improve the management of technological innovation.
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