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題名：癮性商品需求價格彈性與廠商利潤關係之實證研究-以美國香煙市場為例
作者：楊淑珍
作者(外文)：Su-Chen Yang
校院名稱：中華大學
系所名稱：科技管理研究所
指導教授：李堯賢
學位類別：博士
出版日期：2004
主題關鍵詞：癮性商品；香煙需求；價格彈性；轉嫁效果；addictive goods；demand for cigarette；price elasticity；shifting effect
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本研究回顧經濟文獻中有關香煙消費的實證研究,發現過去之研究採用時間序列或橫斷面資料估計香煙需求的彈性時，仍有些計量問題未能避免，以致於該彈性數值之精確性受到質疑。本研究採用橫斷面混合時間序列的資料型態(panel data)提供一種更好的方法，解決了變異數齊一性與時間序列獨立性之問題，並改善香煙需求彈性估計值之精確性。本研究以美國香煙市場為實證研究對象，我們發現美國香煙市場之動態固定估計值優於聯合平均集體估計值與平均集體估計值。短期價格彈性為-0.12，長期價格彈性為-0.72。我們將實際價格彈性的估計值與最適價格彈性作比較，結果兩者之間出現顯著差異，目前價格彈性維持在-0.4，遠低於最適價格彈性，所以廠商仍有相當大的價格與營收成長空間。換言之，只要香煙需求仍處於缺乏彈性範圍，則香煙公司可以藉由提高售價獲取超額利潤。
This study reviews the empirical study of cigarette consumption of the U.S., while investigating, the demand for cigarettes is estimated in the previous literature by using either cross-section data or time series data. Without considering few specific problems, biased estimations may result in imprecise estimation of price elasticities. The primary aim of this paper is to obtain better estimates of the price elasticity of demand for cigarette by using a panel data approach. The common problems that are with cross-section data and time series data can be avoided with this approach to reduce co-linearity among the explanatory variables and to improve the efficiency of these estimates. The study presents a set of estimates for the U.S. cigarette market. We find the dynamic fixed estimator (DFE) is superior to pool mean group estimator and mean group estimator. Using DFE as the estimator, the short run price elasticity is -0.12 and the long run price elasticity is -0.72. We compare the estimated price elasticities with the optimal price elasticities, finding a gap between the two values. The current estimated price elasticity is very steady and well below the optimal price elasticity, this implies that firms can increase its price to make more revenues. In other words, so long as the price elasticity of the demand for cigarettes is inelastic, we would expect that firms will increase the price of cigarette and enjoy excess profits.
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