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題名:國家面臨外在危險的策略反應
作者:朱奕嵐
作者(外文):Yi-Lan Chu
校院名稱:東吳大學
系所名稱:政治學系
指導教授:羅致政
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2003
主題關鍵詞:權力平衡威脅平衡利益平衡危險平衡拿破崙俾斯麥威尼斯Balance of PowerBalance of ThreatBalance of InterestBalance of DangerNapoleonBismarckVenice
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由於面臨外在危險的策略選擇是否正確,攸關國家最高且最終之目的是否能順利實現,因此對於決策者而言,正確解讀策略環境,認識其他行為者的意圖與能力,並且在危險發生時,做出即時而妥當的判斷,可謂是最重要的政策課題。
「國家面臨外在危險的策略反應」這個重要的問題,也是結構現實主義學派代表學者Kenneth N. Waltz、Stephen N. Walt以及Randall L. Schweller相關研究的核心議題。但不論是Waltz的權力平衡理論、Walt的威脅平衡理論或者是Schweller的利益平衡理論,在不同的程度上,都有理論概念定義模糊、未提出操作化定義以及無法解釋真實歷史事件的闕漏。特別是無法解釋歷史或是採取無歷史(A-Historical)取向的研究態度,嚴重妨礙Waltz的權力平衡理論成為普遍化通則社會科學理論的可能。
本論文結合各既有理論之重要內涵,提出一創新之平衡理論-危險平衡理論,並以1081年至1669年的東地中海區域互動、1792年至1812年拿破崙時期以及1866年至1912年俾斯麥與後俾斯麥體系歐洲的互動,來對危險平衡理論進行檢驗。本論文研究發現,直接被威脅國家面臨低度的危險時,將採取「忽視」的策略;面臨中度的危險時,將採取「屈從」的策略;當面臨高度的危險時,為國家生存與政權存續,將採取「對抗」策略。間接被威脅國家將體系變動認知為具低度的風險時,將採取與危險國家合作的「依附」策略;將體系變動認知為具中度的風險時,將採取「觀望」的策略;將體系變動認知為具高度的風險時,將採取「平衡」的策略。
While facing external danger, whether the strategy chosen is proper or not will affect the accomplishment of the highest and final goal, Survival and Security, of a State-actor. Correctly in perceiving the strategic environment, understanding intents and capabilities of other actors, and making prompt and proper decisions hens become the most important issue for policy-makers as well as researchers of International Politics.
“The Strategic Reactions of the state-actors while facing the external danger” is also the core research question to Kenneth N. Waltz, Stephen M. Walt, and Randall L. Schweller who are representative of the theories Neo-realism within the discipline of International Politics. Nonetheless, Waltz’s Balance of Power, Walt’s Balance of Threat, and Schweller’s Balance of Interests all contain the following shortcomings: vague in theoretical concepts, lack of operational definition, and contrary to historical facts. The contradiction to historical facts and the A-Historical approach taken by Waltz both will certainly make his theory impossible to become the general theory of Social Science.
In combining the essence of the above theories, this dissertation develops an alternative theory, Balance of Danger, to answer the question of the strategic reactions of state-actors. Three cases, regional interactions in East Mediterranean from 1081 to 1669, Napoleonic era from 1792 to 1812, and Bismarck and Post-Bismarck Era from 1866 to 1912, are reviewed for theoretical verification. The author finds out that the states-actors have following reactions while facing the external dangers caused by conflicts between actors:
While facing the low degree of danger, the directly threatened actor will take the strategy of Ignoring; while facing the medium degree of danger, the directly threatened actor will take the strategy of Capitulating; and while facing the high degree of danger, the directly threatened actor will take the strategy of Confronting.
While perceiving the low degree of risk, the indirectly threatened actor will take the strategy of Bandwagoning; while perceiving the medium degree of risk, the indirectly threatened actor will take the strategy of Spectatoring; and while perceiving the high degree of risk, the indirectly threatened actor will take the strategy of Balancing.
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