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題名：考慮事故延續時間動態更新預測之高速公路旅行時間預測模式建立與資料簡化方法比較
作者：李穎 引用關係
作者(外文)：Ying Lee
校院名稱：國立成功大學
系所名稱：交通管理學系碩博士班
指導教授：魏健宏
學位類別：博士
出版日期：2007
主題關鍵詞：旅行時間預測；資料融合；資料簡化；事件延續時間預測；Accident duration forecasting；Feature reduction；Data fusion；Travel time forecasting
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本研究利用類神經網路融合多樣交通資料構建一旅行時間預測模式，此模式考慮了預測性的事件延續時間資料並比較不同的資料簡化方法。因此，另優先構建一事件延續時間預測模式，利用事件發生時的即時交通資料及持續性即時資料，每隔固定時間更新事件延續時間預測值到事件結束，此預測性的事件延續時間資訊即作為旅行時間預測模式輸入變數之一。研究中所使用的即時交通資料來自於裝有全球定位系統(Global position systems, GPS)設備之國道客運班車運行資料、迴圈式車輛偵測器之車流資料以及事件資料庫之事件資料。此二類模式皆考慮了資料間的時空關係以表現出交通推移的變化。
為了改善模式績效與節省資料收集時間，本研究討論了資料組合、資料集群與基因演算法資料篩選等三種資料簡化方法之效果。旅行時間預測模式績效方面，除了評估各路段模式的預測績效外，亦評估組合路段預測資訊成為路徑預測資訊時的預測結果，另再分析事件發生時與未有事件發生時的模式預測績效，以瞭解模式未來在服務不同起迄對與有無事件發生時的適用效果。
本研究在事件延續時間預測與旅行時間預測之結果，對於智慧型運輸系統之實務應用推展有具體的參考意義。
This research builds a travel time forecasting model with sequential update of accident duration by fusing a variety of traffic data with Artificial Neural Networks. To consider the influence of accident to the travel time forecasting, the sequential update of accident duration forecasting model is built first. The forecasted duration can be renewed with the updated traffic data throughout the duration of the accident. The output of accident duration model, forecasted accident duration, will become one of the inputs to the travel time forecasting model. The travel time forecasting model constructs a functional relation between real-time traffic data as the input variables and real bus travel time as the output variable. Real-time traffic data are collected from the global position systems (GPS) on board of the intercity buses, vehicle detectors (VD), and accident databases. These two models will consider the time-space relationship between the traffic data and the accident to represent the traffic propagation.
To improve the model performance and save the cost in data collection, the effect of data feature reduction to the model is assessed. The methods considered for data feature reduction include the composition, cluster and selection with Genetic Algorithm. For accident occurrence and no-occurrence uses, the effect of travel time forecasting model will be assessed respectively. To reflect traveler behavior closely, partitioning the freeway into links for model development is considered a proper approach. Once the link travel time forecasting model has been built, the forecasted path travel time will be evaluated by summing the forecasted link travel time to fulfill the user’s trip characteristic.
The features of this research are considering the forecasted accident duration into travel time forecast, discussing the methods of data feature reduction and sequential update of forecasting information. This study shows very promising practical applicability of the proposed models in the Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) context.
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