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題名:高速公路長期施工路段流量模式構建與應用之實例研究
作者:李光益
作者(外文):Kuang-YiLee
校院名稱:國立成功大學
系所名稱:交通管理學系碩博士班
指導教授:丁國樑
學位類別:博士
出版日期:2010
主題關鍵詞:反S-Curve模式羅吉斯特函數衝擊損失Reverse S-Curve modelLogistic functionImpact loss
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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小汽車由於具有高度的機動性,因此已成為一種不可或缺的交通工具,所以世界各國政府均致力於高快速公路的興建,以促進其經濟發展。但於道路完工啟用,隨之而來的便是維護施工,因此道路養護施工的議題探討便更形重要。
本研究係透過反S-Curve模式之構建,以進行高、快速路網中長時間路段施工期間,用路人因為改道所產生之施工路段每日流量變化之預測。有別於以往傳統運輸規劃之靜態交通指派僅能獲得單一路段均衡流量,且無須利用複雜的逐日學習與適應性的旅運決策行為理論,便可將施工期間每日流量變化以簡易的方式進行預測。本研究利用高速公路管理局提供之實際長期施工路段流量資料,經由資料篩選、轉換與嚴謹的統計檢定過程,完成該案例施工路段數種型態之改道行為模式構建,並經由相關評估指加以評比得出以羅吉斯特函數為基礎之反S-Curve模式為最佳模式。本研究並以該模式進行多種實際應用之探討,且依據研究主題之特性,提出「衝擊損失」為指標,作為相關施工計畫評選參考之依據。最後,利用所構建之反S-Curve模式,來探討豐富的資訊系統,以及不同施工情境對施工衝擊的影響。
Vehicles have become essential transportation tools because of the convenience associated with their mobility. Therefore, governments all around the world have invested in construction of an efficient highway network system to promote economic development. However, once construction work reaches completion, maintenance work needs to be undertaken. Consequently, the need to address problematic issues related to road maintenance is becoming more of an urgent imperative for governments all over the world.
This study, through constructing a reverse S-Curve model, is to predict daily traffic volume during roadwork period in a freeway/expressway network due to diversion behavior of road users. It not only differs from the static methods in conventional transportation planning which only obtain one equilibrium traffic volume at one point in time, but also avoids the daily learning and adaptive travel decision behavior theorem, in the prediction of varying daily traffic volumes during roadwork period by using a simple and accurate method. This study used real-life traffic data, provided by National Taiwan-Area Freeway Bureau, through the roadwork section during a long-term maintenance work in northern part of #3 National Freeway. Through data screening, transformation, and strict statistical tests, the framework for constructing driver diversion behavior models has been established. With several models being evaluated under various criteria, the logistic model in the form of reverse S-Curve model has proven to perform the best. This model can be used for the prediction of gradually decreasing daily traffic flows towards another equilibrium level through the roadwork section under long-term maintenance work in freeway/expressway networks. Furthermore, using the “impact loss” as an evaluation criterion in roadwork plans optimization, the model was used in the discussion of various potential applications. Finally, this study developed by the S-Curve model to discuss more extensive information systems, as well as the different roadwork scenarios for the impact of the roadwork construction.
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